This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Adam Fantilli
Columbus Blue Jackets Center
31 goals at 20, and a 44.4 per cent chance share that is the 12th percentile in the league.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | CBJ | 49 | 12 | 15 | 27 | -21 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 115 | 10.4 | 15:43 |
| 2024-25 | CBJ | 82 | 31 | 23 | 54 | +4 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 191 | 16.2 | 17:29 |
| 2025-26 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 131 | 43 | 38 | 81 | -17 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 306 | 14.1 | 16:49 |
This Season So Far
The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
31 goals and 23 assists in 82 games for 54 points, plus-4, on 17:29 a night and 191 shots — 31 goals in an age-20 season, which almost nobody does.
44.4 per cent at five-on-five, the 12th percentile among all skaters. His on-ice goals were 49-51 against an expected 41-52, so 8 goals of finishing luck turned a badly outplayed season into a plus-4. Both facts are true and they have to be held together.
The Finesse Game
The skating is genuinely elite — a long, powerful stride with real top speed, and he uses it to enter the zone with control rather than to chase. That is the tool everything else will be built on.
16.2 per cent shooting on 191 attempts is high and the locations are reasonable. What is missing is the rest of a centre’s game: 23 assists in 82 games, a chance share in the 12th percentile, and a habit of losing the puck in the neutral zone at speed. He scores because he is fast and shoots well, not because he controls a shift.
The Physical Game
6-2 and 205, and he plays hard. He forechecks with force, goes to the net, and does not avoid anything, and he came back from a serious leg laceration the previous season without any visible hesitation.
18 penalty minutes over 82 games is disciplined for the style, and 82 games at 20 is a good sign for a player built this way.
The Intangibles
The 3rd overall pick, a Hobey Baker winner, and 31 goals at 20 on a club that missed the playoffs by 2 points.
The honest reading is that he is a long way from finished and the gap between his goal total and his chance share is the whole of the development left. A 20-year-old scoring 31 while being outplayed is a normal thing; a 24-year-old doing it is a problem, and the next three seasons decide which.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,168 minutes
- Expected goals
- 44.4%
- 12th pct
- Shot attempts
- 46.5%
- 20th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 49 for, 51 against. Expected: 41.4 and 51.8.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe report ranks him 74 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 315 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 80 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2024-25 · 1168 minutes at five-on-five
- Kent Johnson25%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2024-25
- The club
- CBJ took 48.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 44.4% — 3.9 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- First line, 1,168 minutes at five-on-five — 82nd percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Werenski | 50.1% | 39.5% | 53.0% |
| Dmitri Voronkov | 45.0% | 43.9% | 52.6% |
| Kirill Marchenko | 46.5% | 42.8% | 53.2% |
50.1% together, 39.5% for him apart and 53.0% for Werenski apart. He was worse away from Werenski, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Werenski did.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
281 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 33 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 29% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 22% from beyond forty.