Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

9

Ivan Provorov

Columbus Blue Jackets Defense

82 games at 23:21 a night, and on-ice goals of 76-65 against an expected 55-59.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17PHI8262430-7340011613.721:59
2017-18PHI82172441+17202022038.424:09
2018-19PHI8271926-16320011454.825:07
2019-20PHI69132336+11247031508.724:51
2020-21PHI5671926+4280021265.625:00
2021-22PHI7992231-20341011705.324:53
2022-23PHI8262127-17240011155.223:01
2023-24CBJ8252732-11200001074.722:10
2024-25CBJ8272633+11311101007.023:21
2025-26 so far
Career69677205282-282471111112776.023:46

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

7 goals and 26 assists in 82 games for 33 points, plus-11, on 23:21 a night — the second-heaviest workload on the club.

48 per cent at five-on-five, the 31st percentile, over 1,484 minutes. His on-ice goals were 76-65 against an expected 54.8-59.4, which is 21 goals of finishing above expectation at one end. The plus-11 is entirely that.

The Finesse Game

Modest. 100 shots and 7 goals with two-thirds from beyond 40 feet, and a first pass that is safe rather than quick.

He has never been the puck-mover his draft position implied and he no longer pretends to be. 26 assists at 23 minutes a night is a low return and it reflects a defenceman whose job is to get it to somebody else immediately.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 224, and he plays a heavy, durable game. He defends his net front, takes contact, and has an iron-man record that is genuinely unusual — nine consecutive seasons of 80 games or more.

31 penalty minutes is disciplined for the minutes played.

The Intangibles

A first-round pick, three organisations, and a decade of playing 23 minutes a night on clubs that ask him to be a number one because they have nobody else.

The honest reading is that he is a good second-pair defenceman being used as a first, and that last season’s rating flattered him by roughly 20 goals. The availability is the genuine virtue and it is worth a great deal on a blue line this thin.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,484 minutes

Expected goals
48%
31st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.3%
35th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 76 for, 65 against. Expected: 54.8 and 59.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
47th
Numbers
31st

The two rank him within 16 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 72 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1484 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
CBJ took 48.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.0% — 0.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,484 minutes at five-on-five — 98th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Denton Mateychuk46.1%48.9%49.8%
Kirill Marchenko49.4%47.3%51.1%
Adam Fantilli42.7%50.0%45.3%

46.1% together, 48.9% for him apart and 49.8% for Mateychuk apart. Mateychuk was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

145 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 41 feet. 10% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 66% from beyond forty.