Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

78

Damon Severson

Columbus Blue Jackets Defense

25 points, a 50.4 per cent chance share, and on-ice goals of 56-55 that flattered all of it.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15NJD5151217-1322000935.421:58
2015-16NJD7212021-832000941.118:10
2016-17NJD8032831-31580011252.420:21
2017-18NJD7691524-8420021217.419:41
2018-19NJD82112839-27583001467.522:03
2019-20NJD6982331-20523021147.022:58
2020-21NJD5631821-829000913.322:29
2021-22NJD80113546-14575001587.023:36
2022-23NJD8172633+9381121026.919:57
2023-24CBJ6791928-10510018810.221:09
2024-25CBJ7061925+547001916.619:03
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—78473243316-125486121912236.020:60

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 19 assists in 70 games for 25 points, plus-5, on 19:03 a night.

49.6 per cent at five-on-five, the 49th percentile, over 1,184 minutes. His on-ice goals were 56-55 against an expected 47.0-47.8, which is nine goals of finishing above expectation and seven conceded above it — the ledger flatters him at one end and takes it straight back at the other.

The Finesse Game

A puck-mover by trade. 91 shots with 20 per cent from inside 20 feet is an aggressive profile for a defenceman and he joins the rush willingly.

19 assists at 19 minutes a night is thin for a player whose reputation is offensive, and it has been thin for three seasons. The first pass is good; the second decision is where the errors live.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 204, and he defends with position rather than force. He does not clear a crease and does not win many battles below the goal line.

47 penalty minutes over 70 games is a high rate and is the tell of a defenceman who is beaten and reaching.

The Intangibles

Eleven seasons, two organisations, and a large contract signed on the strength of a New Jersey career that has not been repeated here.

At 31 with term remaining, this is now one of the more awkward contracts on the roster. There is a useful second-pair defenceman in there and the club is paying for a first-pair one.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    25.6% of his attempts in the slot, 99th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “A puck-mover by trade.”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He does not clear a crease and does not win many battles below the goal line.”

  • wins-the-wallhe lacks it· the corners and below the goal line

    “He does not clear a crease and does not win many battles below the goal line.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “6-2 and 204, and he defends with position rather than force.”

  • fouls-when-beatena strength· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “47 penalty minutes over 70 games is a high rate and is the tell of a defenceman who is beaten and reaching.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,184 minutes

Expected goals
49.6%
49th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.1%
44th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 56 for, 55 against. Expected: 47.0 and 47.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
30th
Numbers
49th

The two rank him within 19 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 70 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
64th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.41 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.66 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
95.8 mph
82nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 89.7

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1184 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
CBJ took 48.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.6% — 1.3 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 1,184 minutes at five-on-five — 83rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jake Christiansen48.5%50.1%37.9%
Ivan Provorov49.3%49.7%45.9%
Adam Fantilli48.1%50.2%43.8%

48.5% together, 50.1% for him apart and 37.9% for Christiansen apart. Christiansen was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Christiansen than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

133 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 39 feet. 20% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 53% from beyond forty.