Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

18

Pavel Zacha

Boston Bruins Center

Fifty-nine points and six game-winners, from a 6-4 centre who takes half his shots from inside twenty feet.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16NJD1022+4000030.016:51
2016-17NJD7081624-1719502839.614:18
2017-18NJD6981725-3302101127.114:22
2018-19NJD61131225-6154229913.116:05
2019-20NJD6582432-1214321978.316:16
2020-21NJD50171835-111050410316.517:09
2021-22NJD70152136-212240114810.116:51
2022-23BOS82213657+261630313116.016:03
2023-24BOS78213859+121860614814.218:06
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—546111184295-281443251992412.016:08

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

21 goals and 38 assists in 78 games — 59 points at 18:06 a night, plus-12, with 6 power-play goals and 6 game-winners on 148 shots, converting at 14.19 per cent, and only 18 penalty minutes. A career high in points.

49.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,014 minutes, the 52nd percentile. His ice went 56-33 against an expectation of 44.33-44.55 — fourteen fewer goals conceded than the chances predicted, the largest defensive surplus of any forward on the roster.

The Finesse Game

148 attempts at a median of 20 feet, with 50 per cent from inside 20 and 11 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 14.19 per cent. He shoots from the middle of the ice and almost never from the boards.

38 assists is the larger half. He carries the puck through the neutral zone under control at 6-4 and gains the offensive line with it, and the pass out of the corner arrives when a teammate becomes open rather than before.

295 points in 546 games, and the last two seasons are both career highs.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 211 and he does not play as heavy as that. He protects the puck with the frame and does not use it to punish anybody.

18 penalty minutes in 78 games and 144 in 546 for his career is one of the cleanest rates on the roster. He does not retaliate and he does not take liberties, and on a club spending 5:30 a game shorthanded that is worth naming.

The Intangibles

Sixth overall in 2015 by New Jersey, written off there across six seasons, and traded here for Erik Haula in 2022.

He is 27 and has posted the two best seasons of his career since arriving. A sixth-overall pick who becomes a genuine top-six forward at 26 on his second club is a more common story than it sounds, and it still requires somebody to have been right about him.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    78 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “**38 assists is the larger half.** He carries the puck through the neutral zone under control at 6-4 and gains the offensive line with it, and the pass out of the corner arrives when a teammate becomes open rather than before.”

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He carries the puck through the neutral zone under control at 6-4 and gains the offensive line with it, and the pass out of the corner arrives when a teammate becomes open rather than before.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “6-4 and 211 and he does not play as heavy as that. He protects the puck with the frame and does not use it to punish anybody.”

  • retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “He does not retaliate and he does not take liberties, and on a club spending 5:30 a game shorthanded that is worth naming.”

  • takes-libertieshe lacks it· crosses the line and knows where it is

    “He does not retaliate and he does not take liberties, and on a club spending 5:30 a game shorthanded that is worth naming.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,014 minutes

Expected goals
49.9%
52nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48%
35th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 56 for, 33 against. Expected: 44.3 and 44.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
62nd
Numbers
52nd

The two rank him within 10 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 72 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 78 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
75th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.14 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.88 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
95.2 mph
91st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1014 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
BOS took 49.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.9% — 0.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,014 minutes at five-on-five — 60th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
David Pastrnak52.1%40.5%52.4%
Charlie McAvoy52.4%47.6%50.0%
Hampus Lindholm48.7%50.5%52.6%

52.1% together, 40.5% for him apart and 52.4% for Pastrnak apart. He was worse away from Pastrnak, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Pastrnak did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

211 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 21 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 51% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.