Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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17

John Beecher

Boston Bruins Center

Seven goals on thirty-eight shots in a first season, and the fourth percentile of chances.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2023-24BOS527310-6240013818.410:37
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—527310-6240013818.410:37

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

7 goals and 3 assists in 52 games — 10 points at 10:37 a night, minus-6, with 1 game-winner on 38 shots, converting at 18.42 per cent, and 24 penalty minutes. His first NHL season, at 22.

38.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 464 minutes, the 3rd percentile — the worst mark on the roster. His ice went 14-16 against an expectation of 11.71-18.57 — fourteen goals scored above expectation in 464 minutes, which is not a repeatable arrangement and should be read as the sample it is.

The Finesse Game

38 attempts at a median of 21 feet, with 49 per cent from inside 20 and 11 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 18.42 per cent on a very small number of shots.

The skating is the reason he is in the league and it is genuinely high-end for a 6-3 centre — he is one of the fastest men on this roster in a straight line and he closes on a puck carrier from further away than anyone expects.

Three assists in fifty-two games. He does not create anything and the puck skills are the thing standing between him and a real NHL role.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 220. He forechecks first and he finishes checks, and the combination of that size and that speed arriving on a defenceman is a real weapon on a fourth line.

24 penalty minutes in 52 games. He does not retaliate and he is not an agitator.

The Intangibles

Thirtieth overall in 2019, out of Michigan, and an NHL fourth-line centre at 22 after four college seasons.

A first-round pick who arrives as a fourth-line penalty killer is not a failure and is also not what a first-round pick is for. The feet are NHL-calibre now; the hands have to catch up or this is the whole career.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    15% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 1st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “**He forechecks first and he finishes checks**, and the combination of that size and that speed arriving on a defenceman is a real weapon on a fourth line.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “**He forechecks first and he finishes checks**, and the combination of that size and that speed arriving on a defenceman is a real weapon on a fourth line.”

  • playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “**He does not create anything and the puck skills are the thing standing between him and a real NHL role.**”

  • retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “24 penalty minutes in 52 games. He does not retaliate and he is not an agitator.”

  • agitatorhe lacks it· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “24 penalty minutes in 52 games. He does not retaliate and he is not an agitator.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 464 minutes

Expected goals
38.7%
3rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
36.9%
0th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 14 for, 16 against. Expected: 11.7 and 18.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
20th
Numbers
3rd

The two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 62 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 52 games

Top speed
23.6 mph
98th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.75 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.71 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.3 mph
46th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 464 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
BOS took 49.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 38.7% — 11.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 464 minutes at five-on-five — 15th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jakub Lauko38.6%38.8%48.1%
Brandon Carlo34.5%41.0%47.6%
Oskar Steen38.5%38.7%50.7%

38.6% together, 38.8% for him apart and 48.1% for Lauko apart. Lauko was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

47 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 10 feet. 49% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.