Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2026-27 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2026-27 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

20

Justin Barron

Nashville Predators Defense

A first-round pick on his third club, and no goals in 52 games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22COL/MTL7112-30000137.717:11
2022-23MTL3941115-2201114010.016:18
2023-24MTL487613-3161016011.718:38
2024-25MTL/NSH626713-1823000738.217:26
2025-26NSH52099-117000310.014:15
2026-27 so far—————————————
Career—208183452-27762122178.316:41

This Season So Far

The 2026-27 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

No goals and 9 assists in 52 games, minus-1, at 14:15 a night with 17 penalty minutes.

The Finesse Game

50 unblocked attempts and none of them went in, from a median of 42 feet. 52 points in 208 career games, and a season without a single goal from a defenceman drafted for his offence.

The skating is genuinely good — he was the 25th pick in 2020 because of it — and the first pass is adequate. 9 assists in 52 games is not what the pick assumed.

The Physical Game

6-2, 198, and he defends positionally. 17 penalty minutes in 52 games. He is not a physical presence and does not clear his own net front.

The Intangibles

48.6 per cent of the expected goals, 42nd percentile, and 51.0 per cent of the shot attempts, 67th, across 700 minutes — which on this blue line makes him one of the 2 least-bad regulars.

The goals went 25-29 against, and Nashville’s goaltending came in 8 goals worse than the chances predicted.

4 points in his last 10. He is 24, on his third organisation, and has had 208 games to show the offence the draft position promised. There is still time and there is no evidence yet.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2025-26 · 700 minutes

Expected goals
48.6%
43rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51%
67th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 25 for, 29 against. Expected: 27.9 and 29.5.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted
Report
6th
Numbers
43rd

The numbers rank him 37 points above where the report does. It was written with these numbers on screen and departs from them anyway, which makes the gap a judgment rather than an oversight. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 656 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 62 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2025-26 · 52 games

Top speed
21.6 mph
46th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.85 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.09 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.7 mph
23rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 88.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Recent form

Last 20 appearances, 2025-26, oldest first

4

points in his last 10 games — 0 goals, 4 assists, 12 shots

Each bar is one game by points. Filled bars are games he scored in.

Usual linemates

2025-26 · 700 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2025-26

The club
NSH took 47.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.6% — 0.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 700 minutes at five-on-five — 30th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Filip Forsberg48.0%48.9%48.8%
Spencer Stastney52.7%46.9%48.5%
Jonathan Marchessault41.7%51.3%43.5%

48.0% together, 48.9% for him apart and 48.8% for Forsberg apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

50 unblocked shots in 2025-26, 0 of them goals. 18% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 50% from beyond forty.