This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Mathieu Joseph
Ottawa Senators Right Wing
One hundred and two attacking-zone starts against 197, and three goals in fifty-six games.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | TBL | 70 | 13 | 13 | 26 | +5 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 95 | 13.7 | 11:22 |
| 2019-20 | TBL | 37 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 11.4 | 11:31 |
| 2020-21 | TBL | 56 | 12 | 7 | 19 | +3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 20.3 | 10:56 |
| 2021-22 | TBL/OTT | 69 | 12 | 18 | 30 | +12 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 86 | 14.0 | 14:12 |
| 2022-23 | OTT | 56 | 3 | 15 | 18 | +5 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 66 | 4.5 | 14:01 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 288 | 44 | 56 | 100 | +23 | 117 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 341 | 12.9 | 12:30 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
3 goals and 15 assists in 56 games — 18 points — at 14:01 a night. Plus-5, 66 shots at 4.6 per cent, two shorthanded goals, 36 penalty minutes.
48.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 42nd percentile, with his ice at 26-24 against an expectation of 23.36-24.39 across 618 minutes.
He started 34.1 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 6th percentile: 102 attacking draws against 197. A chance share near the league average out of the second-hardest deployment on the club is a genuinely good result and the plus-5 on a team that was minus-10 is the counting version of it.
Five seasons, 288 games, 100 points.
The Finesse Game
66 shots at a median of 25 feet, and three goals at 4.6 per cent.
Inside twenty: 30 shots on goal and 2 goals, 6.67 per cent, against a league forward rate of 17.71. From twenty to forty: 20 shots and 1 goal. Beyond forty: 16 shots and none.
That is well under half the league’s conversion from close on a fair number of chances, and 44 goals in 288 career games says the rate has always been the weak half.
51 wrist shots out of 94 tracked attempts and four slap. 88.6 mph at the 35th percentile.
15 assists in fifty-six games from a fourth-line winger is the useful number, and the two shorthanded goals are the same skill in the role the club actually uses him for.
The Physical Game
6-1 and 189, with 36 penalty minutes.
Top speed 22.9 mph, the 81st percentile; 1.9 bursts a game, the 84th. 2.27 miles a game, the 29th.
Genuinely fast and frequently so, on the low mileage of fourteen minutes a night. That is the profile the 6th-percentile deployment requires: a man who has to get out of his own end from a standing start every shift.
He kills penalties, forechecks at speed and turns pucks over on the backcheck.
At 189 pounds he does not win a puck by leaning on anybody, and none of what he is worth involves contact.
The Intangibles
One hundred and twentieth overall in 2015 to Tampa, four seasons there, and a trade to Ottawa at twenty-five.
44 goals and 56 assists in 288 games, on a career that has been a fourth-line and penalty-killing job throughout.
He is twenty-six. The skating is in the top fifth of the league, the deployment is among the ten hardest in the book, and the chance share that comes back is at the league average — which is a more valuable player than three goals in fifty-six games makes him look.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
- he lacks itraised, and he does not have it
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in
28.7% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 91st percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it
- hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best
34% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 9th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it
“He kills penalties, forechecks at speed and turns pucks over on the backcheck.”
“That is the profile the 6th-percentile deployment requires: a man who has to get out of his own end from a standing start every shift.”
“At 189 pounds he does not win a puck by leaning on anybody, and none of what he is worth involves contact.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 618 minutes
- Expected goals
- 48.9%
- 42nd pct
- Shot attempts
- 49.7%
- 50th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 26 for, 24 against. Expected: 23.4 and 24.4.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 4 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 56 games
- Top speed
- 22.9 mph
- 84th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 1.93 a game
- Distance
- 2.27 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 88.6 mph
- 59th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.9
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2022-23 · 618 minutes at five-on-five
- Shane Pinto28%
- Dylan Gambrelloff the roster24%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- OTT took 51.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.9% — 2.1 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Fourth line, 618 minutes at five-on-five — 24th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Motte | 48.2% | 49.4% | 46.0% |
| Erik Brannstrom | 55.5% | 45.8% | 53.9% |
| Thomas Chabot | 47.0% | 49.9% | 52.2% |
48.2% together, 49.4% for him apart and 46.0% for Motte apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
94 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 38% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 29% from beyond forty.