Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

28

Claude Giroux

Ottawa Senators Right Wing

A thousand and two points in eleven hundred games, and the third-best close-range rate in the league at thirty-five.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2007-08PHI2000-2000020.09:35
2008-09PHI4291827+10142006713.415:10
2009-10PHI82163147-92380214511.016:37
2010-11PHI82255176+204783516914.819:24
2011-12PHI77286593+62960524211.621:33
2012-13PHI48133548-7226121379.521:10
2013-14PHI82285886+74670722312.620:26
2014-15PHI81254873-33614042799.020:34
2015-16PHI78224567-8536152419.120:33
2016-17PHI82144458-15385031997.019:07
2017-18PHI823468102+282090119317.620:22
2018-19PHI82226385+9242142299.621:27
2019-20PHI69213253+72871619710.718:59
2020-21PHI54162743-41210212013.318:06
2021-22PHI/FLA75214465-52650020510.219:04
2022-23OTT82354479+43470621416.418:48
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—11003296731002+3845293752286211.519:32

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

35 goals and 44 assists in 82 games — 79 points — at 18:48 a night. Plus-4, 214 shots at 16.4 per cent, seven on the power play, six game-winners, 34 penalty minutes.

Thirty-five goals at thirty-five, and the best goal total of a sixteen-season career.

54.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 87th percentile, with his ice at 57-55 against an expectation of 59.12-48.84 — six goals past the chances at the defensive end.

He started 55.5 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 75th percentile.

Sixteen seasons, 1,100 games, 1,002 points.

The Finesse Game

214 shots at a median of 27 feet, and thirty-five goals.

Inside twenty feet: 70 shots on goal and 22 goals — 31.43 per cent, against a league forward rate of 17.71, and the third-best close-range rate in the league among forwards who put sixty shots on goal from there. Only Andrei Kuzmenko and Leon Draisaitl were better.

From twenty to forty: 70 shots and 9 goals, 12.86 per cent. Beyond forty: 42 shots and 3 goals, 7.14 per cent, against a league rate of 4.16.

Above the league from all three distances at thirty-five, and extravagantly so from close. An 18.68 per cent overall conversion is not going to repeat, and the underlying habit — arriving at the back post a half-second before the puck — will.

170 wrist shots out of 293 tracked attempts, with 30 slap and 25 tip-ins. 93.1 mph at the 65th percentile.

673 career assists. The passing is what a thousand points is built on and it has not moved.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 186, with 34 penalty minutes.

Top speed 23.4 mph, the 95th percentile — at thirty-five. 0.6 bursts a game, the 31st; 2.95 miles a game, the 78th.

Read those three together, because they describe something specific: the top gear is still there and he almost never uses it. That is what a sixteenth season looks like in a player who has learned exactly how much of the rink he needs to cover.

He plays a heavier game than 186 pounds should allow — he protects the puck below the goal line and takes the hit to make the play, and 452 career penalty minutes is the record of a small forward who has never avoided anything.

What has gone is the ability to carry the puck through a defence. Everything now happens off a give-and-go or from a standing position in the slot.

The Intangibles

Twenty-second overall in 2006, fifteen seasons in Philadelphia including the captaincy, and then Florida and here.

A thousand and two points in 1,100 games, of which 673 are assists, and the best goal-scoring season of the sixteen came at thirty-five on a club that finished twenty-first.

He is thirty-five on a rebuilding roster with two twenty-one-year-olds either side of him, and that is transparently what he was signed for. The measurements say there is more here than a mentor: a 54.8 per cent chance share and the third-best close-range conversion in the league are a first-line winger’s season, not a farewell one.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    54.8% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 49.1% for his club in the minutes he sat: +5.7, 93rd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “673 career assists. The passing is what a thousand points is built on and it has not moved.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “Twenty-second overall in 2006, fifteen seasons in Philadelphia including the captaincy, and then Florida and here.”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He plays a heavier game than 186 pounds should allow — he protects the puck below the goal line and takes the hit to make the play, and 452 career penalty minutes is the record of a small forward who has never avoided anything.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “An 18.68 per cent overall conversion is not going to repeat, and the underlying habit — arriving at the back post a half-second before the puck — will.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,176 minutes

Expected goals
54.8%
86th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
56.1%
93rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 57 for, 55 against. Expected: 59.1 and 48.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
98th
Numbers
86th

The two rank him within 12 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 82 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 82 games

Top speed
23.4 mph
96th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.62 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.95 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.1 mph
83rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1176 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
OTT took 51.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.8% — 3.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,176 minutes at five-on-five — 81st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brady Tkachuk57.3%52.0%53.3%
Tim Stützle55.5%54.0%52.7%
Thomas Chabot58.6%51.9%47.4%

57.3% together, 52.0% for him apart and 53.3% for Tkachuk apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

255 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 34 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 24% from beyond forty.