This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Parker Kelly
Ottawa Senators Center
Undrafted, sixty-five attacking-zone starts against 140, and seven goals for on his ice in 462 minutes.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | OTT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100.0 | 7:32 |
| 2021-22 | OTT | 41 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -4 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 14.6 | 10:35 |
| 2022-23 | OTT | 55 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 59 | 1.7 | 10:30 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 97 | 9 | 8 | 17 | -12 | 97 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 108 | 8.3 | 10:30 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
One goal and 3 assists in 55 games — 4 points — at 10:30 a night. Minus-9, 59 shots at 1.7 per cent, 37 penalty minutes.
43.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 14th percentile, across 462 minutes — and his ice finished 7-19 against an expectation of 13.07-16.8.
Seven goals for in 462 minutes is the number to sit with. It is six below what the chances deserved, on a club that finished thirtieth in the league in finishing, and it is the worst goal share of anyone in this chapter.
He started 31.7 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 4th percentile: 65 attacking draws against 140.
Three seasons, 97 games, 17 points, and he was never drafted.
The Finesse Game
59 shots at a median of 32 feet, and one goal.
Inside twenty: 20 shots on goal and 1 goal. From twenty to forty: 11 shots and none. Beyond forty: 25 shots and none.
One goal on fifty-six shots on goal. Nine goals in 97 career games, and a third of what he throws comes from beyond forty feet, which for a fourth-line forward is the wrong chart entirely.
43 wrist shots out of 79 tracked attempts, three slap.
Three assists in fifty-five games. The offensive file is empty in both directions and the role has never required otherwise.
The Physical Game
6-1 and 185, with 37 penalty minutes last season and 97 in 97 career games.
A penalty minute a game across a career is the shape of the player: he forechecks hard, finishes checks, and plays above his weight at 185 pounds.
He kills penalties and takes the fourth line’s draws in his own end, which the 4th-percentile deployment says plainly.
What the record also says is that the shifts go the wrong way. A 14th-percentile chance share out of the 4th percentile of zone starts is a bad result even after the deployment is taken off it, and that distinguishes him from Kastelic, who was given the same job and came back level.
The Intangibles
Undrafted, out of Camrose, and 97 NHL games across three seasons.
17 points and a minus-12, all of it here.
He is twenty-four and a thirteenth forward. The willingness is genuine and the measurements say the results are not, which for an undrafted player who has made ninety-seven NHL games is a fair place for the file to sit.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
- he lacks itraised, and he does not have it
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in
35.5% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 99th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it
- hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best
32% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 7th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it
“Undrafted, out of Camrose, and 97 NHL games across three seasons.”
“A penalty minute a game across a career is the shape of the player: he forechecks hard, finishes checks, and plays above his weight at 185 pounds.”
“He kills penalties and takes the fourth line's draws in his own end, which the 4th-percentile deployment says plainly.”
“A 14th-percentile chance share out of the 4th percentile of zone starts is a bad result even after the deployment is taken off it, and that distinguishes him from Kastelic, who was given the same job and came back level.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 462 minutes
- Expected goals
- 43.8%
- 14th pct
- Shot attempts
- 46.2%
- 24th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 7 for, 19 against. Expected: 13.1 and 16.8.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 6 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 55 games
- Top speed
- 22.7 mph
- 76th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 1.47 a game
- Distance
- 1.70 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 92.7 mph
- 82nd pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.9
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2022-23 · 462 minutes at five-on-five
- Dylan Gambrelloff the roster47%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- OTT took 51.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.8% — 7.2 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Third line, 462 minutes at five-on-five — 14th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Watson | 41.2% | 46.2% | 45.7% |
| Dylan Gambrell | 42.2% | 45.1% | 44.0% |
| Mark Kastelic | 47.0% | 41.8% | 50.6% |
41.2% together, 46.2% for him apart and 45.7% for Watson apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
76 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 12 feet. 33% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 36% from beyond forty.