Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

ZJ

Zac Jones

New York Rangers Defense

Five foot eleven out of Richmond, Virginia, and 69 games in four seasons.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21NYR10044-22000120.014:59
2021-22NYR12022-7000080.015:10
2022-23NYR16112-24001156.715:37
2023-24NYR31279+18001424.814:38
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—6931417-1014002773.915:00

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

31 games, 2 goals and 7 assists for 9 points, 8 penalty minutes, 14:38 a night and plus-1. He took 48.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 442 minutes, and his ice went 19-22 against an expectation of 17.83-18.82.

One goal of finishing above what the chances were worth and three more conceded than they called for. Thirty-one games in a fourth season, and four hundred and forty-two minutes is not enough to say much from.

The Finesse Game

51 attempts at a median of 39 feet with 43 per cent from beyond 40, 42 on goal, converted at 4.8 per cent.

14 career assists in 69 games. He skates and passes and that is the whole case — a thirty-nine-foot median is unusually close for a defenceman and it says he walks into the slot rather than shooting from the line.

The Physical Game

He is 5-11 and 190 and does not defend with contact.

14 career penalty minutes in 69 games is a very low rate. He does not clear the crease, does not win many walls, and the whole of the defending is feet and stick.

The Intangibles

A third-round pick in 2019 out of Richmond, Virginia, four seasons, and 17 points in 69 games, all of it for one organisation.

He is 24 and has sixty-nine games in four seasons behind a blue line that has not changed. A puck-moving left-hander on a club with Fox, Miller and Lindgren ahead of him has nowhere to go.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He skates and passes and that is the whole case — a thirty-nine-foot median is unusually close for a defenceman and it says he walks into the slot rather than shooting from the line.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is 5-11 and 190 and does not defend with contact.”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He does not clear the crease, does not win many walls, and the whole of the defending is feet and stick.”

  • wins-the-wallhe lacks it· the corners and below the goal line

    “He does not clear the crease, does not win many walls, and the whole of the defending is feet and stick.”

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “He does not clear the crease, does not win many walls, and the whole of the defending is feet and stick.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 442 minutes

Expected goals
48.7%
44th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.7%
53rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 19 for, 22 against. Expected: 17.8 and 18.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
24th
Numbers
44th

The numbers rank him 20 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 31 games

Top speed
21.1 mph
23rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.23 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.15 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.0 mph
19th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 442 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
NYR took 50.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.7% — 1.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
442 minutes at five-on-five — 14th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Braden Schneider46.4%51.4%49.9%
Vincent Trocheck56.3%43.4%54.8%
Alexis Lafrenière52.3%46.0%56.3%

46.4% together, 51.4% for him apart and 49.9% for Schneider apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

51 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 32 feet. 10% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 43% from beyond forty.