Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

13

Alexis Lafrenière

New York Rangers Left Wing

First overall in 2020, and twenty-eight goals in the fourth season, which is when it finally arrived.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21NYR5612921-780046717.913:53
2021-22NYR79191231+23700411017.313:59
2022-23NYR81162339+103330213511.815:13
2023-24NYR82282957+24020521712.917:16
2024-25 so far
Career2987573148+7118501552914.215:12

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

All 82 games, 28 goals and 29 assists for 57 points, 2 on the power play, 5 game-winners, 40 penalty minutes, 17:16 a night and plus-2. He took 55.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,262 minutes, the 91st percentile, and his ice went 69-62 against an expectation of 66.05-52.37.

Three goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and ten more conceded than they called for. Twenty-eight goals and a 91st-percentile chance share, after 148 points in his first four seasons combined.

The Finesse Game

319 attempts at a median of 24 feet with 41 per cent from inside 20, 217 on goal, converted at 12.9 per cent against a career 14.18.

73 career assists in 298 games. He gets to the middle now, which he did not at 20, and the shot is heavier than the draft scouting suggested. Two power-play goals against twenty-eight in total says where the ice has been.

The Physical Game

He is 6-2 and 191 and wins the wall and protects the puck below the goal line.

118 career penalty minutes in 298 games is a low rate. He forechecks hard and does not retaliate, and the physical half of his game arrived at the same time the goals did.

The Intangibles

First overall in 2020 out of St-Eustache, four seasons, and 148 points in 298 games, all of it for one organisation.

He is 23 and had 21, 31, 39 and 57 points in his four seasons. First overall picks who take four years are written off by everybody except the club that drafted them, and this one has just taken a 91st-percentile chance share on a first-place team.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,262 minutes

Expected goals
55.8%
91st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
55.5%
91st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 69 for, 62 against. Expected: 66.0 and 52.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
86th
Numbers
91st

The two rank him within 5 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 415 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 74 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1262 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
NYR took 50.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.8% — 5.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,262 minutes at five-on-five — 87th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Artemi Panarin57.3%46.2%55.8%
Vincent Trocheck56.6%53.3%49.3%
K'Andre Miller54.5%56.4%45.6%

57.3% together, 46.2% for him apart and 55.8% for Panarin apart. He was worse away from Panarin, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Panarin did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

319 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 28 of them goals. His median goal came from 20 feet. 41% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.