Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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23

Adam Fox

New York Rangers Defense

Five foot eleven, 255 career assists in 357 games, and a career plus-108.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20NYR7083442+22321041256.418:54
2020-21NYR5554247+19142111024.924:42
2021-22NYR78116374+18260121587.023:54
2022-23NYR82126072+28341051597.524:23
2023-24NYR72175673+213661513712.423:27
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—35753255308+108142103176817.823:04

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

72 games, 17 goals and 56 assists for 73 points, 6 on the power play, 1 shorthanded, 36 penalty minutes, 23:27 a night and plus-21. He took 54.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,252 minutes, the 85th percentile, and his ice went 56-38 against an expectation of 56.83-47.28.

Level with the chances at one end and nine fewer conceded than they called for at the other. Seventy-three points in seventy-two games from the blue line, and the plus-21 was the best of any defenceman on the club.

The Finesse Game

192 attempts at a median of 42 feet, with 14 per cent from inside twenty and 52 per cent from beyond forty, 137 on goal, converted at 12.4 per cent against a career 7.78.

255 career assists in 357 games. Fourteen per cent of a defenceman’s attempts from inside twenty feet is very aggressive and it is deliberate — he walks off the line into the slot rather than shooting from the point. Seventeen goals is a career high by five.

The Physical Game

He is 5-11 and 185 and does not defend with contact at all.

142 career penalty minutes in 357 games at twenty-three a night is a very low rate. He defends with an early gap and a stick, does not clear a crease, and kills penalties with 3 career shorthanded goals.

The Intangibles

A third-round pick in 2016 by Calgary, out of Jericho, New York, three years at Harvard, five seasons, and 308 points in 357 games at a career plus-108. He has a Norris Trophy.

He is 26 and 185 pounds. A third-round pick who never played for the club that drafted him and has become one of the three or four best defencemen in the league is a scouting story worth the whole chapter.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    18.2% of his attempts in the slot, 92nd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    54.6% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 48.1% for his club in the minutes he sat: +6.5, 98th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “255 career assists in 357 games.”

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “Fourteen per cent of a defenceman's attempts from inside twenty feet is very aggressive and it is deliberate — he walks off the line into the slot rather than shooting from the point.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is 5-11 and 185 and does not defend with contact at all.”

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “He defends with an early gap and a stick, does not clear a crease, and kills penalties with 3 career shorthanded goals.”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He defends with an early gap and a stick, does not clear a crease, and kills penalties with 3 career shorthanded goals.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He defends with an early gap and a stick, does not clear a crease, and kills penalties with 3 career shorthanded goals.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,252 minutes

Expected goals
54.6%
85th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.7%
83rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 56 for, 38 against. Expected: 56.8 and 47.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
84th
Numbers
85th

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 77 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 72 games

Top speed
21.2 mph
31st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.18 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.22 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.7 mph
25th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1252 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
NYR took 50.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.6% — 4.5 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,252 minutes at five-on-five — 86th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Ryan Lindgren49.7%65.8%42.4%
Artemi Panarin63.4%47.8%53.3%
Vincent Trocheck58.2%52.0%53.0%

49.7% together, 65.8% for him apart and 42.4% for Lindgren apart. He was carrying it: the share stayed with him and left Lindgren behind.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

192 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 17 of them goals. His median goal came from 26 feet. 14% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 52% from beyond forty.