Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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21

Kyle Palmieri

New York Islanders Center

Fifteen per cent from twenty to forty feet, against a league rate of eleven, on the good end of the rink.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2010-11ANA10101-100001010.08:41
2011-12ANA18437+360003411.811:31
2012-13ANA42101121+292059210.912:20
2013-14ANA71141731+9380041479.511:57
2014-15ANA57141529-23750411212.514:06
2015-16NJD82302757+339110422213.517:48
2016-17NJD80262753+24681319213.517:21
2017-18NJD62242044-130110518113.317:19
2018-19NJD74272350-942110222412.018:09
2019-20NJD65252045-441110315516.117:07
2020-21NJD/NYI51101121-5202121158.716:35
2021-22NYI691518330572061569.615:37
2022-23NYI55161733+132430312213.117:06
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—736216209425+1038966241176212.315:54

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

16 goals and 17 assists in 55 games — 33 points — at 17:06 a night. Plus-13, 122 shots at 13.1 per cent, three on the power play, three game-winners, 24 penalty minutes.

50.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 58th percentile, with his ice at 44-29 against an expectation of 35.17-34.11 — nine goals better than the chances at the attacking end and five better at the defensive, across 761 minutes.

He started 56.6 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 80th percentile: 246 attacking draws against 189.

Thirteen seasons, 736 games, 425 points, four organisations.

The Finesse Game

122 shots at a median of 23 feet, and sixteen goals.

Inside twenty: 49 shots on goal and 8 goals, 16.33 per cent. Twenty to forty: 60 shots and 9 goals — 15.00 per cent, against a league forward rate of 11.05. Beyond forty: 14 shots and none.

The mid-range number is the file. He is an ordinary finisher from the crease and a well above-average one from the top of the circle, which is what a right-handed one-timer on the off wing is for.

108 wrist shots out of 184 tracked attempts, with 25 tip-ins and 9 slap. 93.6 mph at the 67th percentile, on nine slap shots, so there is nothing in it.

209 career assists against 216 goals. He is a shooter first and always has been, and the 55 games are the reason the totals no longer look like it.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 192, with 24 penalty minutes.

Top speed 21.9 mph, the 30th percentile; 1.1 bursts a game, the 61st; 2.67 miles a game, the 58th.

Below the league in speed and at it in everything else, at thirty-two. The skating has gone and the release has not, which is the usual order.

He goes to the net when the puck is there and takes the punishment for it, and 389 career penalty minutes for a scoring winger is the shadow of a man who has never played a clean game.

Fifty-five games is the fewest he has played in a full season since his first two.

The Intangibles

Twenty-sixth overall in 2009 to Anaheim, five seasons there, six in New Jersey, and two and a half here.

The five straight twenty-four-goal-or-better seasons in New Jersey between 2015 and 2020 are what the club paid for; the sixteen in fifty-five games is what it is getting, at a similar rate over fewer games.

He is thirty-two on a club that finished twenty-third in goals for. Even at this rate he is the third-best finisher on the roster, which says as much about the roster as about him.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    3 of his 16 goals late or in overtime, 92nd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He goes to the net when the puck is there and takes the punishment for it, and 389 career penalty minutes for a scoring winger is the shadow of a man who has never played a clean game.”

  • edgeshe lacks it· changes direction at speed; the forechecker commits and he is gone

    “Below the league in speed and at it in everything else, at thirty-two.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 761 minutes

Expected goals
50.8%
58th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.6%
58th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 44 for, 29 against. Expected: 35.2 and 34.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
58th
Numbers
58th

The two rank him within 0 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 67 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 55 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
39th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.13 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.67 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.6 mph
86th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 761 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
NYI took 49.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.8% — 1.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 761 minutes at five-on-five — 36th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brock Nelson52.6%48.1%48.4%
Zach Parise46.0%53.8%51.8%
Ryan Pulock47.9%52.3%47.6%

52.6% together, 48.1% for him apart and 48.4% for Nelson apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

185 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 17 of them goals. His median goal came from 20 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 10% from beyond forty.