Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

3

Adam Pelech

New York Islanders Defense

The best chance share on this blue line, taken from the 14th percentile of zone starts.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16NYI9022-1000080.017:35
2016-17NYI443710-56000407.516:50
2017-18NYI7831619+7280011062.819:16
2018-19NYI7851621+22240001104.518:38
2019-20NYI38189+420000492.021:08
2020-21NYI5641014+1518010824.921:03
2021-22NYI7832528+20420001042.921:17
2022-23NYI6161521+1536000976.221:39
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—4422599124+771740115964.219:57

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 15 assists in 61 games — 21 points — at 21:39 a night, the most ice time of any Islander. Plus-15, 97 shots, 36 penalty minutes.

52.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 67th percentile, from 296 attacking-zone draws against 431 in his own end — 40.7 per cent, the 14th percentile.

That pair of numbers is the argument for him and it does not need any help. Every other defenceman on this club who posted a share above fifty was handed the good end of the rink to do it; he did it from the 14th percentile of deployment, in the heaviest minutes on the team, against the other club’s best line.

His ice finished 47-40 against an expectation of 47.27-43.54.

Eight seasons, 442 games, 124 points, and a career plus-77.

The Finesse Game

97 shots at a median of 55 feet, 79 per cent of them from beyond forty, and six goals.

Beyond forty: 66 shots on goal and 2 goals, 3.03 per cent, at the positional rate. Six shots all season from inside twenty.

There is no offence to write about and the file has never needed one. What matters is the outlet: 99 career assists against 25 goals, and the first pass out of trouble is the reason a pairing that starts in its own end does not stay there.

94 wrist shots and 37 slap out of 152 tracked attempts. 96.8 mph at the 87th percentile, on that slap count, so the reading holds — and it has produced twenty-five goals in eight seasons, which is the point about shot speed in a nutshell.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 212, with 36 penalty minutes in sixty-one games.

Top speed 21.9 mph, the 32nd percentile; 0.4 bursts a game, the 21st; 2.88 miles a game, the 72nd.

Below the league in speed, well above it in ground covered — the shape this book keeps finding in men who play twenty-two minutes a night against good players and almost never sprint.

He defends with gap control and a stick that is always in the lane, blocks shots, and clears his crease without needing to hit anybody to do it. The career plus-77 from a man with 124 points is what that looks like added up.

What the tracking cannot tell you, and what the deployment does, is that he is the defenceman this club sends over the boards when the puck is in the wrong end and it does not want to talk about it.

The Intangibles

Sixty-fifth overall in 2012, the third round, and 442 games without ever playing for another club.

Sixty-one games last season and 38 in 2019-20 are the two interruptions in a decade, and the file’s only real risk is that a defenceman who plays this many hard minutes accumulates them.

He is twenty-nine. There is no offensive upside here and there never was; what there is is the most valuable thing on the roster after the goaltender, and the club has known it longer than anybody outside it has.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “He defends with gap control and a stick that is always in the lane, blocks shots, and clears his crease without needing to hit anybody to do it.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “What the tracking cannot tell you, and what the deployment does, is that he is the defenceman this club sends over the boards when the puck is in the wrong end and it does not want to talk about it.”

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “What matters is the outlet: 99 career assists against 25 goals, and the first pass out of trouble is the reason a pairing that starts in its own end does not stay there.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,124 minutes

Expected goals
52.1%
68th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.8%
69th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 47 for, 40 against. Expected: 47.3 and 43.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
66th
Numbers
68th

The two rank him within 2 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 61 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
63rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.41 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.88 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.8 mph
82nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1124 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
NYI took 49.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.1% — 2.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,124 minutes at five-on-five — 75th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Ryan Pulock48.5%57.5%47.0%
Zach Parise49.6%53.1%50.2%
Brock Nelson53.7%51.3%48.6%

48.5% together, 57.5% for him apart and 47.0% for Pulock apart. He was better away from Pulock, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Pulock.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

140 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 31 feet. 6% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 79% from beyond forty.