Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

6

Ryan Pulock

New York Islanders Defense

Five hundred and six defensive-zone starts, ninety-eight long shots on goal, three goals, and the fourth-fastest measured shot in the league.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16NYI15224+150001513.315:44
2016-17NYI1000+100000—3:57
2017-18NYI68102232-4145001845.418:24
2018-19NYI8292837+21223031805.022:22
2019-20NYI68102535+8143031636.122:24
2020-21NYI5621517+1580011211.722:26
2021-22NYI5651621022001224.121:08
2022-23NYI8252126+10141011264.020:54
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—42843129172+527914089114.721:02

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

5 goals and 21 assists in 82 games — 26 points — at 20:54 a night, across 1,486 five-on-five minutes, the most of any Islander. Plus-10, 126 shots, 14 penalty minutes.

47.6 per cent of the expected goals, the 35th percentile, with his ice at 67-53 against an expectation of 57.76-63.47 — ten and a half goals better than the chances at the defensive end and nine better at the attacking.

And the deployment is the reason the first of those numbers is low. He was on the ice for 506 five-on-five draws in his own end against 363 in the other, the sixth-highest defensive-start count in the league and the highest on this club — 41.8 per cent, the 18th percentile.

Eight seasons, 428 games, 172 points, a career plus-52, all of it here.

The Finesse Game

126 shots at a median of 53 feet, 84 per cent of them from beyond forty, and five goals.

Beyond forty feet: 98 shots on goal and 3 goals — 3.06 per cent, which is the league rate for defencemen almost exactly. Nine shots all season from inside twenty.

So he is at the positional rate from range on high volume, which makes him neither the Dobson case nor its opposite: the shot goes to the net and the club scores at the ordinary rate off it.

78 slap shots out of 185 tracked attempts — 42 per cent, the highest share on this blue line — and a measured 101.6 mph, the fourth-fastest in the league. On that count the number means what it says.

A hundred and one miles an hour and three goals from beyond forty feet is the honest juxtaposition. The shot is enormous, it is aimed at a stick in the slot rather than at the net, and 129 career assists against 43 goals says which of those is the job.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 219, with fourteen penalty minutes in eighty-two games of the hardest zone starts on the club.

Top speed 22.8 mph, the 80th percentile; 0.7 bursts a game, the 38th; 2.90 miles a game, the 74th.

Good top-end speed he rarely needs, on heavy mileage — twenty-one minutes a night of defensive-zone hockey looks exactly like this.

He blocks shots, closes the gap early, and defends the front of his own net without taking penalties, which at five hundred defensive-zone starts is the single most impressive line in the file. Fourteen penalty minutes is not an accident; it is positioning.

The Intangibles

Fifteenth overall in 2013, and 428 games in one uniform.

The career plus-52 was assembled almost entirely from the wrong end of the rink, and the twenty-six points are what is left over when a defenceman spends his season starting in his own zone.

He is twenty-nine, and the pairing with Pelech has been the club’s best defensive unit for four years. What the file cannot say is how much of the plus-26.8 in goaltending value belongs to the pair in front of it, because this book has no way to separate them.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    84.2% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 96th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.17 penalty minutes a game over 82, 4th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “He blocks shots, closes the gap early, and defends the front of his own net without taking penalties, which at five hundred defensive-zone starts is the single most impressive line in the file.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “Fourteen penalty minutes is not an accident; it is positioning.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “The shot is enormous, it is aimed at a stick in the slot rather than at the net, and 129 career assists against 43 goals says which of those is the job.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,486 minutes

Expected goals
47.6%
35th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.6%
35th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 67 for, 53 against. Expected: 57.8 and 63.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
80th
Numbers
35th

The report ranks him 45 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 73 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 82 games

Top speed
22.8 mph
93rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.72 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.90 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
101.6 mph
99th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1486 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
NYI took 49.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.6% — 2.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,486 minutes at five-on-five — 98th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Adam Pelech48.5%47.0%57.5%
Brock Nelson46.3%48.2%51.9%
Anders Lee50.6%46.4%55.9%

48.5% together, 47.0% for him apart and 57.5% for Pelech apart. Pelech was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

184 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 40 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 84% from beyond forty.