Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2026-27 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2026-27 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

Erik Gudbranson

Photo by Pens Through My Lens, CC BY-SA 4.0

Erik Gudbranson

Columbus Blue Jackets Defense #44

The 3rd overall pick in 2010, and the 1st percentile in expected goals.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12FLA72268-1978000762.614:12
2012-13FLA32044-2247000490.018:45
2013-14FLA65369-7114000923.317:59
2014-15FLA764913-4580001103.618:37
2015-16FLA64279+349000732.720:07
2016-17VAN30156-1418001402.520:20
2017-18VAN52235-735000533.818:25
2018-19VAN/PIT762810-2087001942.118:14
2019-20PIT/ANA51459095000785.119:22
2020-21OTT/NSH45134-1259001581.717:54
2021-22CGY7861117+15680001294.718:08
2022-23CBJ7011213-24570011021.021:18
2023-24CBJ7862026-1474001916.619:40
2024-25CBJ16044+16000120.017:46
2025-26CBJ37123+619000342.917:46
2026-27 so far—————————————
Career—84235105140-11886400510913.218:33

This Season So Far

The 2026-27 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

1 goal and 2 assists in 37 games, plus-6, at 17:46 a night. His 842nd career game.

The Finesse Game

None, and there never really was any. 52 unblocked attempts from a median of 56 feet — not one of them from inside 20 — and 1 goal. 35 goals in 842 career games.

2 assists in 37 games. He is on the ice to defend and to be large.

The Physical Game

6-5, 222, and it is the entire career. He fights, he clears the crease, and he is genuinely difficult to get past in a straight line.

The skating is the problem and has been since he was 20. He cannot recover when beaten and he is beaten often, because forwards have learned that the way past him is to change direction.

The Intangibles

The numbers are the worst of any player in this edition. 38 and a half per cent of the expected goals — 1st percentile — and 41.3 per cent of the shot attempts, 2nd. Across 547 minutes the expected goals ran 16.8 to 26.0 against.

There is no roster context to hide behind. Columbus finished 8th in even-strength expected goals for and thirteenth against; every other defenceman here posted a share above 50. Gudbranson posted 38.

He is 34, the third pick in a draft, and 842 games into a career built almost entirely on how he looks rather than on what the ice does when he is on it. Nothing on this page is ambiguous.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    39% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 5th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2025-26 · 547 minutes

Expected goals
39.2%
2nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
41.3%
2nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 19 for, 19 against. Expected: 16.8 and 26.0.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted
Report
1st
Numbers
2nd

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written with these numbers on screen, so the agreement is not corroboration — the arithmetic is on both sides of it.

Both bars are percentiles among the 656 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 58 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2025-26 · 37 games

Top speed
22.4 mph
79th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.46 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.42 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
98.6 mph
92nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 88.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Recent form

Last 20 appearances, 2025-26, oldest first

0

points in his last 10 games — 0 goals, 0 assists, 14 shots

Each bar is one game by points. Filled bars are games he scored in.

Usual linemates

2025-26 · 547 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2025-26

The club
CBJ took 51.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 39.2% — 12.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
547 minutes at five-on-five — 21st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Boone Jenner40.6%38.6%53.5%
Ivan Provorov35.2%40.7%52.7%
Adam Fantilli35.5%40.7%54.3%

40.6% together, 38.6% for him apart and 53.5% for Jenner apart. Jenner was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

52 unblocked shots in 2025-26, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 60 feet. 0% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 87% from beyond forty.