Morgan Geekie

Last Season

Thirty-nine goals and 29 assists in 81 games — 68 points, minus-five, at 17:24 a night. Twelve of the goals came on the power play.

The Finesse Game

He shot 21.5 per cent. That needs saying first, because everything else about the season sits on top of it. Before last year he had 111 goals in 414 games; last year he scored 39 in 81.

The location does not fully justify it. Thirty-four per cent of his unblocked attempts came from inside twenty feet and a quarter came from beyond forty, with a median of 30. That is a perfectly ordinary distribution for a middle-six forward, not the shot chart of a man who should be burying a fifth of what he takes.

The hands in tight are real, and so is a heavy release that beats goaltenders clean. He is a good shooter. He is not a one-in-five shooter.

The Physical Game

Six foot three, 212, and he uses it going to the net, which is how some of those goals were manufactured. Twenty-two penalty minutes is a big man playing a clean game.

The Intangibles

While he was on the ice at five-on-five the goals went 41-34 in his favour and the expected goals went 43.7 to 49.6 against — 46.8 per cent, 25th percentile. He was outplayed and outscored the opposition anyway, which is the Boston season in one player.

None of this means he is a bad player. It means a 39-goal season should be priced as a 25-goal player having a remarkable year, and anyone drafting him in the autumn on the strength of last spring is buying the shooting percentage, not the shooter.