Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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80

Pierre-Luc Dubois

Washington Capitals Center

Sixty-six points and a plus-27, one season after being bought out of a career.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18CBJ82202848+84960416512.116:38
2018-19CBJ82273461+166420517415.517:43
2019-20CBJ70183149-24910415811.417:56
2020-21CBJ/WPG4691221-8381037611.815:02
2021-22WPG81283260-6106150623312.018:55
2022-23WPG73273663+577110120513.218:27
2023-24LAK82162440-97070414611.015:42
2024-25WSH82204666+277640414214.117:18
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—598165243408+3152947031129912.717:18

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

20 goals and 46 assists in 82 games — 66 points at 17:18 a night, plus-27, with 4 power-play goals and 4 game-winners on 142 shots, and 76 penalty minutes.

55.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 85th percentile — the best mark of any forward on the roster. His ice went 72-40 against an expectation of 54.52-43.63 — nine goals of scoring missing and four fewer conceded.

The Finesse Game

142 attempts at a median of 18 feet with 53 per cent from inside 20 and 16 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 14.1 per cent. He takes his shots from where a 6-4 centre should.

46 assists is a career high and the best half of him. He protects the puck below the goal line and waits, and the pass out of the corner arrives when a teammate becomes open rather than before. 408 points in 598 games.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 220 and he forechecks with force. He finishes checks, he wins pucks on the wall, and he is very difficult to move off possession.

76 penalty minutes in 82 games, and 529 in 598 career games. He plays with an edge and a share of it crosses the line, and he is not a player anybody enjoys defending.

The Intangibles

Third overall in 2016 and 598 games across four organisations, having forced his way out of two of them and then had the worst season of his career in the third.

He is 27. Los Angeles traded him for a goaltender a year after signing him for eight years, and he responded with 66 points and a plus-27 on a club that finished first in the East. That is the most complete rehabilitation in this edition.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    55.5% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 48.8% for his club in the minutes he sat: +6.7, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “**142 attempts at a median of 18 feet with 53 per cent from inside 20 and 16 per cent from beyond 40**, converting at 14.1 per cent. He takes his shots from where a 6-4 centre should.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “**46 assists is a career high and the best half of him.** He protects the puck below the goal line and waits, and the pass out of the corner arrives when a teammate becomes open rather than before.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “**6-4 and 220 and he forechecks with force.** He finishes checks, he wins pucks on the wall, and he is very difficult to move off possession.”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “He finishes checks, he wins pucks on the wall, and he is very difficult to move off possession.”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He finishes checks, he wins pucks on the wall, and he is very difficult to move off possession.”

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “He plays with an edge and a share of it crosses the line, and he is not a player anybody enjoys defending.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,121 minutes

Expected goals
55.5%
92nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.5%
78th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 72 for, 40 against. Expected: 54.5 and 43.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
93rd
Numbers
92nd

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 82 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 82 games

Top speed
22.9 mph
78th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.2

Bursts over 20 mph
1.74 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.79 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.8 mph
91st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 83.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1121 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
WSH took 50.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.5% — 4.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,121 minutes at five-on-five — 78th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Connor McMichael55.8%55.1%48.5%
Tom Wilson56.4%54.5%47.6%
Aliaksei Protas56.6%54.8%50.6%

55.8% together, 55.1% for him apart and 48.5% for McMichael apart. McMichael was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for McMichael than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

229 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 22 of them goals. His median goal came from 10 feet. 54% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.