Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

74

John Carlson

Washington Capitals Defense

Forty-six assists at 35, and 725 points from a defenceman who has never played anywhere else.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2009-10WSH22156+118000214.815:15
2010-11WSH8273037+21441031444.922:39
2011-12WSH8292332-15224001525.921:52
2012-13WSH4861622+1118000976.223:01
2013-14WSH82102737-3225002084.824:31
2014-15WSH82124355+11283131936.223:04
2015-16WSH5683139+16142041246.523:42
2016-17WSH7292837+7103031805.022:43
2017-18WSH821553680324042376.324:47
2018-19WSH80135770+21343011857.025:04
2019-20WSH69156075+12262061897.924:38
2020-21WSH52103444-5123011287.823:47
2021-22WSH78175471+13207021958.723:49
2022-23WSH4092029-7123101247.323:23
2023-24WSH82104252-7406051765.725:54
2024-25WSH7954651+17221001673.023:34
2025-26 so far
Career1088156569725+1033644723225206.223:38

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

5 goals and 46 assists in 79 games — 51 points at 23:34 a night, the largest assignment on the club, plus-17, on 167 shots, and 22 penalty minutes.

52.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 77th percentile. His ice went 60-50 against an expectation of 59.76-53.60 — level for and four conceded above expectation.

The Finesse Game

167 attempts at a median of 49 feet with 64 per cent from beyond 40 and 11 per cent from inside 20, converting at only 3.0 per cent for 5 goals — a low year for a defenceman who has scored 156 in his career.

46 assists and 569 in 1,088 career games. He runs a power play from the top of the umbrella, he holds the puck until a killing box commits, and the pass to the left circle is the play this franchise has run for fifteen years.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 220 and he defends with position rather than force. He clears his crease adequately and he does not hurt anybody doing it.

22 penalty minutes in 79 games at twenty-three and a half a night is a low rate. He is essentially never beaten badly enough to have to reach, which at 35 is a genuine compliment.

The Intangibles

Twenty-seventh overall in 2008 and 1,088 games and 725 points, all of it here, with a Stanley Cup in 2018 and a 75-point season at 30.

He is 35. He scored the overtime goal that won the World Junior gold medal for the United States in 2010 and has since become the highest-scoring defenceman in this franchise’s history.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,285 minutes

Expected goals
52.7%
77th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
54%
88th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 60 for, 50 against. Expected: 59.8 and 53.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
80th
Numbers
77th

The two rank him within 3 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 78 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1285 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
WSH took 50.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.7% — 1.9 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,285 minutes at five-on-five — 90th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Rasmus Sandin50.7%54.3%50.7%
Connor McMichael54.1%52.1%50.1%
Jakob Chychrun49.8%54.0%48.4%

50.7% together, 54.3% for him apart and 50.7% for Sandin apart. He was better away from Sandin, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Sandin.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

248 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 39 feet. 11% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 64% from beyond forty.