Utah Mammoth

What the Quant Says

241 goals, 21st in the league, and 3rd at creating chances at even strength at 2.843 expected goals per 60. Those two numbers do not belong to the same hockey team and reconciling them is the whole chapter.

At five-on-five the club generated 169.1 expected goals and scored 145. That is 24.1 goals short — 31st in the league in finishing, and the second-worst figure in this edition.

It is distributed across the men who produced most of the chances. Clayton Keller had 90 points and his ice scored 25 goals at five-on-five against an expectation of 48.59. Nick Schmaltz had 63 points and his ice scored 26 against an expectation of 50.00. Both were minus. Both had the 74th and 77th percentile of chances.

Logan Cooley had 65 points at 20, Dylan Guenther 27 goals in 70 games at 21 with 9 game-winners, and Barrett Hayton took 58 per cent of his shot attempts from inside 20 feet. None of them scored what the chances said they should have.

What the Scout Says

Two of the best passers in the league, three forwards under 23, and nobody who stands in front of a goaltender.

Clayton Keller's 60 assists come from carrying the puck through the neutral zone and giving it up a beat before a defenceman can commit. Nick Schmaltz does the same thing a step slower and threw 43. Between them they are most of the reason this club created chances at the third-best rate in hockey.

Logan Cooley handles the puck at speed better than anybody on this roster and had 40 assists at 20. JJ Peterka beats a defenceman wide from a standing start and was acquired in the summer to do it here.

Dylan Guenther takes only 17 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet and 29 per cent from beyond 40 — the most perimeter profile of any scorer here — and converted 13.2 per cent of it, which says the release is genuinely heavy.

The exceptions are the two men who go to the paint. Barrett Hayton shoots from a median of 16 feet with 58 per cent inside 20, and Jack McBain from 20 feet with 50 per cent inside. Neither of them plays in the top six.

What the Quant Says

251 goals against, 17th in the league, and 14th in even-strength expected goals against at 2.431 per 60. Solid, unspectacular, and not the reason this season finished where it did.

Mikhail Sergachev played 25:07 a night — the largest assignment of any defenceman in this edition — and had 53 points, which is 38 assists and 15 goals from a man who broke his tibia and fibula in a single play eighteen months earlier.

Ian Cole is 6-1 and 237 pounds, played all 82 games at 36, took 77 penalty minutes, and his ice conceded seven fewer goals than the chances predicted. John Marino took 2 penalty minutes in 35 games at twenty-one a night, which is close to the lowest rate anybody records.

The gap is Olli Maatta's ice, which went 42-42 against an expectation of 49.49-47.83 — fourteen goals of scoring missing on a second pairing, which is the same complaint as everywhere else on this roster.

What the Scout Says

One of the best defencemen in the league at 25 minutes a night, and 237 pounds of veteran standing next to him.

Mikhail Sergachev carries the puck out of his own zone under pressure, escapes the first forechecker, and threw 38 assists — and he clears the front of his own net and finishes checks, which most puck-moving defencemen do not. He broke his tibia and fibula in a single play in February 2024 and came back to play twenty-five minutes a night.

Ian Cole is 6-1 and 237 and clears his crease by force, and 77 penalty minutes at 36 says the edge has not gone anywhere. John Marino defends almost entirely with his stick and his positioning and took 2 penalty minutes in 35 games.

Olli Maatta blocks shots and takes 16 penalty minutes a season, and Sean Durzi has 92 assists in 242 career games and lost two-thirds of last season to a shoulder.

Nate Schmidt was signed off a Stanley Cup in Florida — undrafted, 741 games, and the skating is still high-end at 34.

What the Quant Says

Karel Vejmelka went 26-22-8 with a .9039, a 2.58 average and 1 shutout in 58 games, facing 1,509 shots. The club's goaltending came in 2.9 goals better than the chances faced, 16th in the league — exactly average, which on this roster was not the problem.

It is comfortably the best season of his career. He has a career .8994 across 198 games and posted an .8867 and an .8951 in his first two NHL years behind clubs that conceded enormously, and there was very little reason before last season to think he could be a starter. He is 29 and it is late to be finding out.

Connor Ingram played 22 games and was traded to Edmonton. Vitek Vanecek was signed off an .884 across San Jose and Florida, having won a Stanley Cup as Florida's third goaltender without playing a minute of it.

What the Scout Says

A 29-year-old having the first good season of his career, and a backup on a five-year slide.

Karel Vejmelka is 6-4 and 221 and plays deep and large. He sets at the top of the crease, he is square almost without exception, and the frame takes the top of the net away without him having to move for it. The rebound control is decent. The lateral recovery is the limitation — a second chance from the far post is a long way for him, which is the standard cost of the style.

Vitek Vanecek is 6-2 and 184 and small for the modern position, which means the technique has to be exact. The rebound control is the weakness and it has been at every stop. His save percentages have gone .9084, .9107, .9111, .8901, .884 — a straight line downwards across five seasons.

Behind a defence that was 13th at suppressing chances, an average crease was enough. What this club needed was not a goaltender.

What the Quant Says

19th in the league at 7.029 expected goals per 60, over 4:34 a night. Below average, on a club whose even-strength chance creation is 3rd.

Dylan Guenther scored 12 power-play goals, Clayton Keller 10, Nick Schmaltz 9, Barrett Hayton 7 and Logan Cooley 7. That is a good distribution and the rate underneath it is not.

The unit is built around Keller and Schmaltz moving the puck and Guenther shooting from the top of the circle, and it has no net-front presence at all — Hayton and Jack McBain are the only forwards on this roster who go there by instinct, and neither is on the first unit.

On a club that scores this far below its chances at even strength, a below-average power play is the second-largest thing on the ledger.

What the Scout Says

All the passing a unit could want and nobody to stand in the paint.

Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz between them are two of the better distributors in the league, and Logan Cooley is a third. Dylan Guenther's release from the top of the circle produced 12 power-play goals at 21 and it is the finishing threat the unit is built around.

What is missing is somebody in front of the goaltender. Barrett Hayton shoots from a median of 16 feet and Jack McBain from 20, and both are used on the second unit. Nobody on the first unit weighs more than 200 pounds.

A club that is 3rd in the league at creating chances at even strength and 17th on the power play is leaving something specific on the ice, and the specific thing is a screen.

What the Quant Says

30th in the league at 7.839 expected goals against per 60, over 5:01 a game — the 6th-most shorthanded time in hockey. A bad unit doing a great deal of it, and the clearest structural failure on the roster.

Alexander Kerfoot took 14 penalty minutes in 81 games and scored 2 shorthanded goals, Olli Maatta took 16 in 77 and John Marino 2 in 35. Those are first-unit killers with genuinely excellent discipline.

The volume comes from the other end of the roster. Jack McBain took 78 penalty minutes, Ian Cole 77, Liam O'Brien 50 in 28 games, Logan Cooley 46 and Barrett Hayton 45.

Brandon Tanev and Kevin Rooney were signed in the summer — 16 and 14 penalty minutes in 79 and 70 games respectively, and first-unit killers at every stop either of them has made. That is the club addressing the right problem with the right kind of player.

What the Scout Says

Excellent killers, dreadful results, and too much of it.

Alexander Kerfoot took 14 penalty minutes in 81 games and scored 2 shorthanded goals. Olli Maatta and John Marino took 16 and 2 in 77 and 35 games respectively, and both defend by positioning rather than by reaching. Kevin Stenlund wins the draw that begins the shift.

Brandon Tanev and Kevin Rooney were signed in the summer, and between them they took 30 penalty minutes in 149 games last season. Tanev is among the most relentless forecheckers in the league and does it without fouling, which on a kill is close to the ideal player.

So the personnel is right and the unit was 30th in the league at 7.839, on the 6th-most shorthanded time in hockey. That combination points at the structure, and it is the phase this roster should be able to fix fastest.