Utah Hockey Club

What the Quant Says

256 goals, 16th in the league. Exactly average, from a club that finished twenty-seventh.

It created 2.679 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 20th, and took 48.5 per cent of the shot attempts at five-on-five, 22nd, and 48.9 per cent of the expected goals, 23rd.

At five-on-five it scored 171 goals against an expectation of 162.1 — a surplus of 8.9, 10th in the league. Nine goals above what the chances were worth, on the twentieth-best rate of chance creation in hockey. The finishing was the good half of this club.

Clayton Keller scored 33 goals and had 76 points, both the most on the roster. Nick Schmaltz had 22 and 61, Matias Maccelli 17 and 57 in all 82 games, Nick Bjugstad 22 and 45 and Alexander Kerfoot 13 and 45.

Logan Cooley scored 20 goals in all 82 games of his first season, at 19. Dylan Guenther scored 18 in 45 games at 20, nine of them on the power play.

What the Scout Says

A small first-line winger, a nineteen-year-old centre, and a shooting rate nobody should believe.

Clayton Keller is 5-10 and 175 and took 324 attempts at a 30-foot median with 27 per cent of them from inside twenty, 223 of them on goal, converting 14.5 per cent against a career 12.31. He is the lightest man on this roster and took seventy-nine more attempts than anybody else on it.

Nick Schmaltz had 22 goals and 39 assists and has 238 career assists in 506 games. Matias Maccelli is 5-11 and had 40 assists in all 82 games, with 83 in 169 career games. Alexander Kerfoot's median attempt was 16 feet, with 57 per cent from inside twenty — the closest chart of any forward on the club who took a hundred and fifty attempts.

Nick Bjugstad is 6-6 and scored 22 goals on a plus-11. Lawson Crouse is 6-4 and scored 23. Michael Carcone is undrafted, 5-9, and scored 21 goals in 74 games at 18.9 per cent, which is the highest rate on the club and a long way above his career 16.67.

Logan Cooley scored 20 goals at 19 and Dylan Guenther 18 in 45 games at 20, and Barrett Hayton took 55.3 per cent of the chances over 418 minutes, the highest share on the roster.

What the Quant Says

The club allowed 2.814 expected goals per 60 at even strength, 23rd in the league, and conceded 274 goals, 24th. Bottom third at both.

At five-on-five it conceded 172 goals against an expectation of 169.3 — three more than the chances called for, and the club's goaltending came in 2.7 goals worse than the shots it faced, 18th in the league.

Sean Durzi had 9 goals and 32 assists in 76 games at 22:43, the most ice on the club, and his ice went 57-59 against an expectation of 57.67-54.61. Juuso Välimäki played 68 games at 19:06 and finished plus-12, with his ice at 52-37 against an expectation of 47.31-45.65 — almost nine goals of goaltending in his favour.

Michael Kesselring is 6-5 and played 65 games at 15:48 on a plus-11, and his ice finished 51-40 against an expectation of 41.53-41.52, nine and a half goals of finishing above what the chances were worth.

Mikhail Sergachev arrives from Tampa Bay with 209 career assists in 475 games. John Marino arrives from New Jersey with 75 games at 20:57, and Ian Cole from Vancouver with 826 career games and 744 penalty minutes. J.J. Moser, Mathew Dumba and Travis Dermott all leave.

What the Scout Says

Forty-one points from the first pairing, and three arrivals with 1,629 games between them.

Sean Durzi had 9 goals and 32 assists in 76 games at 22:43, the most ice on the club, with 85 career assists in 212 games. He walks the line and shoots into traffic — 198 attempts at a 46-foot median with 61 per cent of them from beyond forty feet.

Mikhail Sergachev is 6-3 and 212 and has 209 career assists in 475 games, including 54 in 2022-23. He played 34 games last season and his ice went 17-33. John Marino is 6-1 and has 89 career assists in 328 games and played 75 at 20:57 for New Jersey.

Ian Cole is 35, has 826 career games, 744 penalty minutes and a career plus-154, and has never scored a power-play goal. He took 84 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty feet and 1 per cent from inside twenty, which is the most perimeter-bound chart in this chapter.

Juuso Välimäki finished plus-12 on a ledger of 52-37, and Michael Kesselring is 6-5 and finished plus-11 with his ice 51-40 against an expectation of 41.53-41.52. Robert Bortuzzo arrives at 35 with 511 penalty minutes in 560 games and no points in 27 last season.

What the Quant Says

The club's goaltending came in 2.7 goals worse than the chances it faced, 18th in the league. Which is to say the crease was not the problem, on a club that had several.

Connor Ingram went 23-21-3 with a .9069 and a 2.91 in 50 games, with 6 shutouts — tied for the most of any goaltender in this edition. He faced 1,461 shots in those fifty games.

Karel Vejmelka went 13-19-2 with an .8953 and a 3.35 in 38 games, facing 1,089. His career line across 140 games is an .8979.

Two goaltenders who have played almost all of their hockey for this organisation, appearing in 88 games between them, at a combined figure that finished eighteenth. Ingram's six shutouts are the single best thing on this club's ledger.

What the Scout Says

Six shutouts from a goaltender nobody has heard of, and not much else settled.

Connor Ingram is 6-1 and 218 and went 23-21-3 with a .9069 and a 2.91 in 50 games, with 6 shutouts — tied for the most of any goaltender in this edition. He was a third-round pick by Tampa Bay in 2016, has played 80 games in three seasons, and faced 1,461 shots last season behind a club that finished twenty-third in the league at preventing chances at even strength.

Karel Vejmelka is 6-4 and 221 and went 13-19-2 with an .8953 and a 3.35 in 38 games. His career line across 140 games is an .8979, and he has been between .8953 and .8994 in each of his three seasons — which is a settled level rather than an unsettled one.

The club's goaltending finished eighteenth against the chances it faced, which on a twenty-seventh-place club is a department doing better than the men in front of it. Six shutouts and a .9069 across fifty games is the argument for Ingram; three seasons under .9000 is the argument against Vejmelka. Neither of them has been given a full season to settle it.

What the Quant Says

23rd in the league at 6.592 expected goals per 60, over 4:58 a night — the fifteenth-fewest power-play minutes of any club. Below-average volume and below-average rate.

Nick Schmaltz scored 10 power-play goals, Clayton Keller 9, Dylan Guenther 9, Lawson Crouse 7, Sean Durzi 3, Logan Cooley 3, Matias Maccelli 2, Nick Bjugstad 2, Alexander Kerfoot 2, Michael Carcone 1 and Barrett Hayton 1. Kailer Yamamoto scored 2 elsewhere.

Nick Schmaltz has 34 career power-play goals in 506 games, the most on the roster, and Clayton Keller 33 in 520. Nick Bjugstad has 21 in 694, Lawson Crouse 16 in 504 and Alexander Kerfoot 14 in 524.

Dylan Guenther has 13 career power-play goals in 78 games. Nine of the eighteen goals he scored last season came on the man advantage, which for a twenty-year-old in his second season is either the beginning of a specialty or a number that will not hold.

What the Scout Says

Twenty-third by rate on below-average ice, with two men past thirty career power-play goals.

Nick Schmaltz scored 10 power-play goals and has 34 in 506 career games, the most on the roster. He plays the half-wall and has 238 career assists.

Clayton Keller scored 9 and has 33 in 520. At 5-10 he works the far circle and shoots from the top of it; a 30-foot median attempt is where the whole unit is aimed.

Dylan Guenther scored 9 power-play goals in 45 games and has 13 in 78 career games. Thirteen of the 24 goals he has scored in the league have come on the man advantage.

Lawson Crouse is 6-4 and scored 7 at the net front, with 16 in 504 career games. Sean Durzi takes the point with 6 career power-play goals in 212 games. A unit that finished twenty-third has the personnel for better than that.

What the Quant Says

27th in the league at 7.736 expected goals against per 60, over 5:12 a night, the seventh-most shorthanded minutes in hockey. The worst combination available: a bad rate over a lot of ice.

Alexander Kerfoot scored 2 shorthanded goals, Kevin Stenlund 2, Nick Schmaltz 1, Logan Cooley 1, Nick Bjugstad 1, Michael Carcone 1 and Dylan Guenther 1.

Lawson Crouse has 5 career shorthanded goals in 504 games, the most on the roster, and Alexander Kerfoot 4 in 524 and Kevin Stenlund 4 in 206.

Liam O'Brien took 153 penalty minutes in 75 games — more than anybody else in this edition — and has 441 in a career of 199. Ian Cole has 744 in 826 games and Robert Bortuzzo 511 in 560. Three men who have spent whole careers in the box, on a club that gave up the seventh-most shorthanded time in the league.

Twenty-seventh by rate on the seventh-most minutes is the worst department on this roster and it is not close.

What the Scout Says

The worst rate in this chapter over the seventh-most shorthanded minutes in the league.

Kevin Stenlund arrives from Florida with 4 career shorthanded goals in 206 games and took 44.4 per cent of the chances at five-on-five over 817 minutes, the lowest share of any forward on the club alongside Michael Carcone.

Alexander Kerfoot scored 2 shorthanded goals and has 4 in 524 career games. Lawson Crouse has 5 in 504, the most on the roster.

Liam O'Brien took 153 penalty minutes, more than anybody else in this edition, and has 441 in 199 career games. That is a rate of more than two minutes a game across seven seasons, on a club that already spent 5:12 a night killing penalties.

Ian Cole and Robert Bortuzzo arrive with 1,255 penalty minutes between them. Adding two thirty-five-year-old defencemen with a combined 1,386 games is a defensible answer to a twenty-seventh-place penalty kill. Adding them to Liam O'Brien is a different proposition.