This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Barrett Hayton

The 97th percentile of chances — the best figure in this edition — and 58 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2019-20	ARI	20	1	3	4	+2	14	0	0	1	27	3.7	11:09
2020-21	ARI	14	2	1	3	-1	0	0	0	0	10	20.0	11:29
2021-22	ARI	60	10	14	24	-8	20	2	0	1	82	12.2	16:07
2022-23	ARI	82	19	24	43	-5	42	4	0	4	178	10.7	17:30
2023-24	ARI	33	3	7	10	-13	26	1	0	0	66	4.5	17:01
2024-25	UTA	82	20	26	46	-6	45	7	0	7	155	12.9	16:06
2025-26 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	291	55	75	130	-31	147	14	0	13	518	10.6	16:02

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

20 goals and 26 assists in 82 games — 46 points at 16:06 a night, minus-6, with 7 power-play goals, 7 game-winning goals and 45 penalty minutes on 155 shots.

58.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five — the 97th percentile, and the best mark of any forward in this edition. His ice went 39-36 against an expectation of 51.09-37.06: ten goals of scoring missing, and four conceded above expectation on the club’s most dominant possession line.

The Finesse Game

155 attempts at a median of 16 feet with 58 per cent from inside 20 and 12 per cent from beyond 40. That is among the least perimeter shot profiles in this edition and it is the whole method — he scores from the paint or he does not score.

26 assists in 82 games. The passing is functional rather than a weapon; the value is that he wins the puck and gets it to the middle, which on a line with Keller is exactly the division of labour.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 200 and he plays a heavy game in the hard areas. He wins pucks below the goal line, he goes to the front of the net, and he forechecks first.

45 penalty minutes in 82 games is a moderate rate and a share of it is the extra shove in the crease. He does not back out of anything.

The Intangibles

Fifth overall in 2018 and six years of being called a disappointment for not being the man taken third — 291 games and 130 points.

He is 25. Last season he had the best five-on-five chance share of any forward in this book and 46 points to show for it, which is the whole club in one player.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored
64.1% of his attempts in the slot, 90th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it
durable· was available
82 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there
58.0% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 51.3% for his club in the minutes he sat: +6.7, 95th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it
net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips
“he scores from the paint or he does not score.”
wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line
“He wins pucks below the goal line, he goes to the front of the net, and he forechecks first.”
forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck
“He wins pucks below the goal line, he goes to the front of the net, and he forechecks first.”
retaliatesa strength· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty
“**45 penalty minutes in 82 games** is a moderate rate and a share of it is the extra shove in the crease. He does not back out of anything.”
playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes
“The passing is functional rather than a weapon; the value is that he wins the puck and gets it to the middle, which on a line with Keller is exactly the division of labour.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,007 minutes

Expected goals: 58%; 98th pct
Shot attempts: 57.5%; 95th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 39 for, 36 against. Expected: 51.1 and 37.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

91st

Numbers

98th

The two rank him within 7 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 81 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 82 games

Top speed: 23.0 mph; 86th pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 1.89 a game
Distance: 2.59 miles a game
Hardest shot: 84.5 mph; 41st pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1007 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club: UTA took 53.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 58.0% — 4.8 above the club he did it on.
The role: First line, 1,007 minutes at five-on-five — 62nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Nick Schmaltz	57.8%	58.2%	50.5%
Clayton Keller	58.4%	57.6%	50.5%
Mikhail Sergachev	59.2%	57.1%	48.9%

57.8% together, 58.2% for him apart and 50.5% for Schmaltz apart. Schmaltz was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Schmaltz than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

245 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 20 of them goals. His median goal came from 12 feet. 59% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 12% from beyond forty.