Utah Mammoth

What the Quant Says

268 goals, 4th in the league in shot-attempt share at 53.1 per cent and 9th in even-strength expected goals per 60. The finishing added 7.3 goals on top, 11th.

Clayton Keller put up 88 points at 5-10 and was plus-21 at the 92nd percentile. Dylan Guenther scored 40 goals at 23. Nick Schmaltz scored 33 with 11 on the power play at the 88th. Logan Cooley scored 24 in 54 games at 22, taking half his shots from inside 20 feet. Barrett Hayton posted the 94th percentile and Michael Carcone the 94th at 5-9 and undrafted.

Jack McBain takes 63 per cent of his attempts from inside 20 feet, a median of 15. This is a deep, young, well-shaped attack in which 9 forwards finished above the 68th percentile.

What the Scout Says

4 genuinely dangerous forwards who beat you in 4 different ways. Clayton Keller's assist total is a top-10 figure in the league, and the durability at his weight is the remarkable part — he does not go to the net front and cannot hold a wall, and he has not missed a game. Dylan Guenther's shot is already one of the best in the league and the location profile is extraordinary, and it is also the profile a checking series is designed to take away, because the outside is exactly what a good defensive club concedes. Logan Cooley is the insurance against that: he gets to the interior on speed and edges and scores from inside, which is the method that survives.

Nick Schmaltz's hands in tight and his skating are the whole proposition, and the passing that made him is intact underneath the new goal total. Underneath them the roster is unusually well shaped. Anders Lee shoots from the crease and from nowhere else. Lawson Crouse got to a career-high by reaching the same ice more often rather than by shooting more. Barrett Hayton stands in exactly the right place and does not convert, which is the least alarming version of a scoring problem and the most persistent one. Michael Carcone is moved off pucks by everybody, gets to his ice on pure speed, and is the most under-used player on the club. Daniil But is 6-5, already knows where goals come from, and is not yet strong enough to stay there.

What the Quant Says

9th in even-strength expected goals against, and the clearest demonstration in this book of why plus-minus should never be read alone.

John Marino was plus-42 — and while he was on the ice the 5-on-5 goals went 66 for and 72 against. Nate Schmidt was plus-31 with the goals 73-49 against him. MacKenzie Weegar was minus-33 with the goals 46-75 in his favour. 3 defencemen, 3 plus-minus figures pointing the opposite way to the 5-on-5 record underneath them — the difference is special teams, empty nets and overtime, none of which appear in the column beside them.

Mikhail Sergachev played 24:18 a night, put up 59 points and had the goals go 60-62 in his favour. Every regular defenceman finished above the 54th percentile. This is a good blue line whose surface numbers are noise.

What the Scout Says

The deepest and most balanced blue line in the West. Mikhail Sergachev has a genuinely heavy point shot and a top-10 assist total at the position, and he has come back from a broken leg with the mobility intact, which was the open question when the club traded for him. MacKenzie Weegar is the temperament of the group — 88 penalty minutes of physical commitment, and the reason a late-round pick has played 600 games. John Marino's value is almost entirely the first pass, and it is a very good one.

Nate Schmidt is the quiet exit-pass defenceman whose point total makes him look like a fading depth player and whose results say otherwise. Andrew Peeke is disciplined and beaten wide by genuine speed, which makes him a fifth or sixth defenceman on a club that has 4 good ones — a good problem. Dmitri Simashev is the one to watch: he closes on puck carriers with a long, easy stride and does not get beaten wide, and he is thin and will be pushed off his own net front until the weight arrives. This is a group with a puck-mover, a shooter, an enforcer of sorts and 2 men who defend, which is what a complete blue line looks like.

What the Quant Says

The one weak phase, and a heavy one. Karel Vejmelka took 64 games and faced 1,626 shots — second-most in this edition — and stopped .8961. Vitek Vanecek played 22 before leaving for the Islanders; Jaxson Stauber has 6 appearances.

Against the chances faced, Utah's goaltending came in 6.2 goals worse than expected, 22nd. On a club that is 7th at limiting chances, that is the difference between a playoff seed and a comfortable one, and Vejmelka is carrying almost the entire load alone.

What the Scout Says

The one position that undoes an otherwise excellent hockey club. Karel Vejmelka is square and patient, does not chase, and the size covers a good deal of the low ice without him having to move to it; his puckhandling is better than average and useful. Rebound control is the weakest part of him and it is where the goals come from, which behind a club that concedes fewer chances than most is the specific failure that costs the most.

Behind him there is nothing established. Jaxson Stauber's technique is orthodox and the athleticism fair, and nothing about the profile suggests a starter; a shutout in his first ever NHL start is the sort of thing that earns a goaltender 4 more years of contracts. This is a club that out-chances its opponents comfortably and gives a large part of it back in its own net, and the room contains no obvious remedy.

What the Quant Says

20th at 7.06 expected goals per 60, on 4:46 a night, 18th. Median in both, on a roster that is top-8 in nearly everything else.

Schmaltz led it with 11 power-play goals, Guenther 9, Cooley 6, Sergachev 5. With Keller, Guenther, Cooley and Sergachev available this is a unit that should rate considerably higher, and it is the cheapest place on the roster to find another 10 goals.

What the Scout Says

Better stocked than its results, and the shape of it explains why. Clayton Keller is the distributor — a killer cannot close on him without the seam opening somewhere else — and Nick Schmaltz has spent a career running exactly this ice, which is where the largest part of his new scoring came from. Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley are 2 finishers who need different things: one wants the puck moved across, the other wants a lane into the slot.

Mikhail Sergachev's point shot is heavy and converts at a rate most defencemen do not manage. And the net front is genuinely well staffed for once: Anders Lee starts in the blue paint and does not leave it, and Jack McBain is 6-4 in the same space, though the hands there have been the problem for 4 seasons. Barrett Hayton goes to the interior and does not finish. There is no missing piece on this unit — which makes its ranking the cheapest available improvement on the roster.

What the Quant Says

11th at 7.15 expected goals against per 60, over 5:03 a game — the twelfth-heaviest workload.

Jack McBain's 84 penalty minutes and Weegar's 88 are the cost of the heaviness that makes it work, and Marino, Schmidt and Sergachev take the hard shorthanded minutes. 4th in attempts, 6th in chances, 8th at both ends and 11th on the kill: the only thing holding Utah back is a goaltender facing more rubber than almost anyone in hockey.

What the Scout Says

Honest, heavy and well drilled. Jack McBain wins draws and forechecks heavily and does the work a kill needs from a big centre; Barrett Hayton kills, wins draws and goes to the interior at a high penalty rate that reflects engagement rather than carelessness; Kevin Stenlund is a disciplined fourth-line centre doing exactly this job; Brandon Tanev's speed is what he is for. Vincent Trocheck wins draws at one of the best rates in the league, which matters more shorthanded than anywhere else on the ice.

The blue line is the strength. MacKenzie Weegar takes the front of the net and pays for it; John Marino and Nate Schmidt both defend without fouling; Andrew Peeke's size is less exposed here than at even strength, because the puck comes to him rather than past him. What the club spends on this phase is its own weight: Weegar's 88 penalty minutes, Hayton's 54 in 15 minutes a night, Tanev's 50 in 9, and O'Brien's 43 in 9. That is a lot of time defending a man down for a team that is otherwise winning the play.