Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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98

Mikhail Sergachev

Utah Mammoth Defense

53 points at 25:07 a night — the largest assignment in this edition — in the first season after the trade.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17MTL4000+1000020.012:08
2017-18TBL7993140+11383051416.415:22
2018-19TBL7562632+12280001284.717:55
2019-20TBL70102434+15585101188.520:22
2020-21TBL5642630+5300011083.721:58
2021-22TBL7873138+6591011494.722:28
2022-23TBL79105464+13533021566.423:49
2023-24TBL3421719-1616000533.822:33
2024-25UTA77153853-83231313211.425:07
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—55263247310+39314152129876.421:01

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

15 goals and 38 assists in 77 games — 53 points at 25:07 a night, the largest assignment of any defenceman in this chapter, with 3 power-play goals, a shorthanded goal and 3 game-winners on 132 shots. Minus-8.

52.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 74th percentile, across 1,309 minutes. His ice went 57-55 against an expectation of 58.56-53.74 — twelve goals of scoring missing and seven conceded above expectation.

The Finesse Game

132 attempts at a median of 52 feet with 75 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 11.4 per cent for 15 goals — more than any defenceman on the club by eleven. That is a very high rate from that distance and it says the shot is genuinely heavy.

38 assists is the number that makes him a first-pair defenceman. He carries the puck out of his own zone under pressure, he escapes the first forechecker, and the outlet pass is quick and accurate.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 212 and he plays a hard game. He clears the front of his own net, he finishes checks, and he defends the rush by stepping up rather than backing off.

32 penalty minutes in 77 games at twenty-five minutes a night is a low rate. He is not an agitator and he is rarely beaten badly enough to have to reach.

The Intangibles

Ninth overall in 2016 by Montreal and traded to Tampa Bay before he had played a season, where he won two Stanley Cups — 552 games and 310 points.

He broke his tibia and fibula in a single play in February 2024 and came back to play 77 games and twenty-five minutes a night. Utah acquired him in the summer of 2024 for J.J. Moser, Conor Geekie and picks. He is 27.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-shot· beats a goaltender from range

    7 of 161 attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 4.3%, 91st percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.21) · 16% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He carries the puck out of his own zone under pressure, he escapes the first forechecker, and the outlet pass is quick and accurate.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “**38 assists is the number that makes him a first-pair defenceman.**”

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He clears the front of his own net, he finishes checks, and he defends the rush by stepping up rather than backing off.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He clears the front of his own net, he finishes checks, and he defends the rush by stepping up rather than backing off.”

  • fouls-when-beatena strength· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “He is not an agitator and he is rarely beaten badly enough to have to reach.”

  • agitatorhe lacks it· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “He is not an agitator and he is rarely beaten badly enough to have to reach.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,309 minutes

Expected goals
52.1%
70th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.4%
85th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 57 for, 55 against. Expected: 58.6 and 53.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
91st
Numbers
70th

The report ranks him 21 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 81 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 77 games

Top speed
22.4 mph
78th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.53 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.36 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.3 mph
74th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 89.7

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1309 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
UTA took 53.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.1% — 1.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,309 minutes at five-on-five — 92nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Clayton Keller54.8%50.5%52.6%
Nick Schmaltz55.4%50.2%53.2%
John Marino55.3%50.7%53.4%

54.8% together, 50.5% for him apart and 52.6% for Keller apart. He was worse away from Keller, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Keller did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

215 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 15 of them goals. His median goal came from 39 feet. 4% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 75% from beyond forty.