Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.
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11

Dylan Guenther

Utah Mammoth Right Wing

27 goals in 70 games at 21 with nine game-winners — the most on the club — and twelve power-play goals.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2022-23ARI336915-7104015311.313:07
2023-24ARI45181735-11491412114.916:17
2024-25UTA70273360-426120920413.217:00
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—1485159110-12502511437813.515:55

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

27 goals and 33 assists in 70 games — 60 points at 17:00 a night, with 12 power-play goals and 9 game-winning goals on 204 shots, converting at 13.2 per cent.

49.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 55th percentile. His ice went 35-30 against an expectation of 34.60-34.88 — nine fewer goals conceded than the chances predicted, which is the largest defensive surplus of any forward on the club.

The Finesse Game

204 attempts at a median of 35 feet with only 17 per cent from inside 20 and 29 per cent from beyond 40 — the most perimeter profile of any scorer on this roster, and he converted 13.2 per cent of it.

That is a shot rather than a shot location: the release from the top of the circle is genuinely heavy and quick, and 12 of his 27 goals came on a power play built around it. 33 assists says the passing is real too.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 191 and honest without being heavy. He forechecks properly and he is not going to win a puck against a defenceman on the wall.

26 penalty minutes in 70 games is a low rate. He is disciplined and largely out of the physical half of the game.

The Intangibles

Ninth overall in 2021 and 148 games and 110 points, with 18 and 27 goals in his two full seasons.

He is 22, he scored the last goal in Arizona Coyotes history, and he signed an eight-year extension in 2024. Nine game-winners on twenty-seven goals is a remarkable share and it is not a repeatable skill.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    6 of his 27 goals late or in overtime, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    65% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • forechecks-aggressivelypresent and ordinary· first man in, and on the puck

    “He forechecks properly and he is not going to win a puck against a defenceman on the wall.”

  • wins-the-wallhe lacks it· the corners and below the goal line

    “He forechecks properly and he is not going to win a puck against a defenceman on the wall.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “33 assists says the passing is real too.”

  • fouls-when-beatena strength· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “26 penalty minutes in 70 games is a low rate. He is disciplined and largely out of the physical half of the game.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 825 minutes

Expected goals
49.8%
51st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.5%
78th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 35 for, 30 against. Expected: 34.6 and 34.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
80th
Numbers
51st

The report ranks him 29 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 78 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 70 games

Top speed
23.1 mph
89th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.2

Bursts over 20 mph
2.60 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.69 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.6 mph
77th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 83.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 825 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
UTA took 53.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.8% — 3.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 825 minutes at five-on-five — 38th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Logan Cooley47.2%54.5%50.8%
Mikhail Sergachev46.1%52.2%54.1%
Jack McBain46.1%51.7%55.1%

47.2% together, 54.5% for him apart and 50.8% for Cooley apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

326 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 27 of them goals. His median goal came from 29 feet. 17% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 29% from beyond forty.