Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

77

Victor Hedman

Tampa Bay Lightning Defense

Six-foot-seven and 244 pounds, 66 points at 34, and 51 assists from the blue line.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2009-10TBL7441620-379000904.420:51
2010-11TBL7932326+3700001013.021:01
2011-12TBL6151823-965000826.123:06
2012-13TBL4441620+131000765.322:40
2013-14TBL75134255+5533021707.622:26
2014-15TBL59102838+12403021158.722:41
2015-16TBL78103747+21461001805.623:04
2016-17TBL79165672+3474051669.624:31
2017-18TBL77174663+32542012167.925:51
2018-19TBL70124254+24442041826.622:46
2019-20TBL66114455+27314031557.124:04
2020-21TBL5493645+5281021366.625:03
2021-22TBL82206585+26366062199.125:05
2022-23TBL7694049+10421111854.923:43
2023-24TBL78136376+18764021687.724:48
2024-25TBL79155166+18304011818.323:05
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—1131171623794+1937723512924227.123:26

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

15 goals and 51 assists in 79 games — 66 points at 23:05 a night, the largest assignment on the club, plus-18, with 4 power-play goals and 30 penalty minutes on 181 shots.

52.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 66th percentile, across 1,341 minutes. His ice went 68-45 against an expectation of 58.67-52.25, which is a defenceman whose results matched his chances at both ends.

The Finesse Game

181 attempts at a median of 49 feet with 72 per cent from beyond 40 and 7 per cent from inside 20, converting at 8.3 per cent for 15 goals — a high rate for that distribution and evidence of how heavy the shot is.

51 assists is the number. He walks the line on the power play, he throws the puck to the far side before a killing box can rotate, and he has been doing it at this level for fifteen years.

The Physical Game

6-7 and 244 pounds — among the largest men in the league — and he plays to it. He clears the front of his own net, he defends the rush with reach nobody can beat, and he is not moved from anywhere.

30 penalty minutes in 79 games at twenty-three minutes a night is a low rate. He is not an agitator and he does not take liberties; the size is used structurally and it always has been.

The Intangibles

Second overall in 2009, a Norris Trophy in 2018, a Conn Smythe in 2020, two Stanley Cups, and 1,131 games with 794 points.

He is 34 and was named captain in 2025 after Steven Stamkos left. Sixty-six points at that age from a defenceman is the sort of season very few men have had.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    79 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “**51 assists is the number.** He walks the line on the power play, he throws the puck to the far side before a killing box can rotate, and he has been doing it at this level for fifteen years.”

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He clears the front of his own net, he defends the rush with reach nobody can beat, and he is not moved from anywhere.”

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “He clears the front of his own net, he defends the rush with reach nobody can beat, and he is not moved from anywhere.”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He clears the front of his own net, he defends the rush with reach nobody can beat, and he is not moved from anywhere.”

  • takes-libertieshe lacks it· crosses the line and knows where it is

    “He is not an agitator and he does not take liberties; the size is used structurally and it always has been.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “He is 34 and was named captain in 2025 after Steven Stamkos left.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,341 minutes

Expected goals
52.9%
77th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.9%
72nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 68 for, 45 against. Expected: 58.7 and 52.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
99th
Numbers
77th

The report ranks him 22 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 86 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 79 games

Top speed
22.5 mph
83rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.47 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.33 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
99.0 mph
95th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 89.7

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1341 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
TBL took 50.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.9% — 2.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,341 minutes at five-on-five — 93rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nikita Kucherov55.7%50.4%53.8%
Darren Raddysh53.4%52.5%47.9%
Jake Guentzel56.3%50.2%50.4%

55.7% together, 50.4% for him apart and 53.8% for Kucherov apart. He was worse away from Kucherov, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Kucherov did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

302 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 15 of them goals. His median goal came from 40 feet. 7% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 72% from beyond forty.