Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

27

Ryan McDonagh

Tampa Bay Lightning Defense

Plus-43 in 82 games at 35, which was the best figure in the league.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2010-11NYR40189+1614001273.718:44
2011-12NYR8272532+25440011235.724:44
2012-13NYR4741519+1322001834.824:21
2013-14NYR77142943+11362341777.924:49
2014-15NYR7182533+23263021485.423:08
2015-16NYR7392534+26222001138.022:21
2016-17NYR7763642+20371111533.924:21
2017-18NYR/TBL6342529+820100994.023:20
2018-19TBL8293746+38340011287.022:05
2019-20TBL5011112+719000502.020:42
2020-21TBL504812+1314000854.721:54
2021-22TBL7142226+1516000854.722:27
2022-23NSH7121820+1222001782.621:32
2023-24NSH7432932+1931001913.321:47
2024-25TBL8242731+4322012785.120:22
2025-26 so far
Career101080340420+289379951515185.322:34

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

4 goals and 27 assists in 82 games — 31 points at 20:22 a night, plus-43 — the best figure in the league — with a shorthanded goal and only 22 penalty minutes.

52.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 71st percentile, across 1,347 minutes — the most on the roster. His ice went 58-42 against an expectation of 54.20-49.93 — four goals better than expected for and eight fewer against.

The Finesse Game

78 attempts in 82 games at a median of 51 feet with 74 per cent from beyond 40 and 5 per cent from inside 20, and 4 goals. He does not shoot and he has not for a decade.

27 assists is what the breakout produces. The first pass is short, early and almost never wrong, and under a heavy forecheck he escapes rather than chipping it out.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 216 and among the most positionally sound defenders in the league. He blocks shots, he clears his own crease, and he defends the rush by standing men up at the blue line.

22 penalty minutes in 82 games at twenty minutes a night is a very low rate for a physical defenceman. He is essentially never beaten badly enough to reach.

The Intangibles

Twelfth overall in 2007, traded before he had played a game, and captain of the Rangers for four seasons — 1,010 games, 420 points, a career plus-289, and two Stanley Cups here.

He is 36. He was traded to Nashville in a salary dump in 2023 and traded back a year later, and last season he posted the best plus-minus in hockey.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,347 minutes

Expected goals
52.1%
72nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.9%
41st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 58 for, 42 against. Expected: 54.2 and 49.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
72nd
Numbers
72nd

The two rank him within 0 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 76 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1347 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
TBL took 50.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.1% — 1.3 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,347 minutes at five-on-five — 93rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Erik Cernak51.3%54.1%50.6%
Brandon Hagel53.1%51.1%59.7%
Anthony Cirelli53.4%50.9%61.1%

51.3% together, 54.1% for him apart and 50.6% for Cernak apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

119 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 37 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 74% from beyond forty.