This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Nick Paul
Tampa Bay Lightning Left Wing
Six-foot-four and 234 pounds, 22 goals, and the ice he was on conceded fifteen fewer goals than the chances predicted.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | OTT | 24 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 7.1 | 12:12 |
| 2016-17 | OTT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 16:29 |
| 2017-18 | OTT | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9.1 | 7:54 |
| 2018-19 | OTT | 20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3.3 | 8:28 |
| 2019-20 | OTT | 56 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 103 | 8.7 | 14:27 |
| 2020-21 | OTT | 56 | 5 | 15 | 20 | +5 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 105 | 4.8 | 16:05 |
| 2021-22 | OTT/TBL | 80 | 16 | 16 | 32 | -14 | 39 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 166 | 9.6 | 16:31 |
| 2022-23 | TBL | 80 | 17 | 15 | 32 | +11 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 120 | 14.2 | 16:10 |
| 2023-24 | TBL | 82 | 24 | 22 | 46 | -16 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 153 | 15.7 | 17:16 |
| 2024-25 | TBL | 76 | 22 | 19 | 41 | +13 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 141 | 15.6 | 16:27 |
| 2025-26 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 486 | 97 | 102 | 199 | -20 | 182 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 861 | 11.3 | 15:33 |
This Season So Far
The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
22 goals and 19 assists in 76 games — 41 points at 16:27 a night, plus-13, with 3 game-winners and 30 penalty minutes on 141 shots.
48.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 32nd percentile. His ice went 42-25 against an expectation of 36.66-39.59 — fifteen fewer goals conceded than the chances predicted, which is the largest defensive surplus of any forward on the roster.
The Finesse Game
141 attempts at a median of 24 feet with 39 per cent from inside 20, converting at 15.6 per cent for 22 goals — a career high by five.
19 assists in 76 games. There is not much creation; he is a big body who arrives in the slot, and he has scored 20 or more twice in three seasons doing it.
The Physical Game
6-4 and 234 pounds and among the largest forwards in the league. He forechecks with force, he wins pucks below the goal line, and he cannot be moved from in front of a net.
30 penalty minutes in 76 games is a low rate for a man that size, and it says the physicality is used to hold the puck rather than to hurt anybody. He kills penalties and he takes defensive draws.
The Intangibles
A fourth-round pick of Dallas in 2013 who spent six seasons in Ottawa without settling, and was traded here at the 2022 deadline — 486 games and 199 points.
He is 30. He scored the goal that eliminated Toronto in Game 7 in 2022, which in this organisation is its own kind of tenure.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,057 minutes
- Expected goals
- 48.1%
- 33rd pct
- Shot attempts
- 49.2%
- 43rd pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 42 for, 25 against. Expected: 36.7 and 39.6.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe report ranks him 43 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 77 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2024-25 · 1057 minutes at five-on-five
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2024-25
- The club
- TBL took 50.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.1% — 2.7 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Second line, 1,057 minutes at five-on-five — 69th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan McDonagh | 52.6% | 45.6% | 51.9% |
| Victor Hedman | 48.3% | 48.0% | 52.3% |
| Brandon Hagel | 52.1% | 46.2% | 57.8% |
52.6% together, 45.6% for him apart and 51.9% for McDonagh apart. He was worse away from McDonagh, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than McDonagh did.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
193 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 22 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 40% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 24% from beyond forty.