Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

73

Tyler Toffoli

San Jose Sharks Center

30 goals on 233 shots on a club that scored 204, in the first year of a four-year contract.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2012-13LAK10235+321002010.011:59
2013-14LAK62121729+21101051249.712:56
2014-15LAK76232649+253735320011.514:35
2015-16LAK82312758+352091421314.517:19
2016-17LAK63161834+6224021659.716:35
2017-18LAK82242347+9166062519.616:07
2018-19LAK82132134-16233032265.817:13
2019-20LAK/VAN68242044-12050420311.816:51
2020-21MTL5228164402472515817.717:31
2021-22MTL/CGY74202949-51482119510.316:18
2022-23CGY82343973+1628100426812.716:37
2023-24NJD/WPG79332255-614110422914.416:58
2024-25SJS78302454-211460123312.916:56
2025-26 so far
Career890290285575+66244741042248511.716:19

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

30 goals and 24 assists in 78 games — 54 points at 16:56 a night, with 6 power-play goals on 233 shots, converting at 12.9 per cent. Minus-21.

49.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 41st percentile. His ice went 38-40 against an expectation of 38.61-40.14, which is a forward whose results matched his chances almost exactly on the worst possession club in the league.

The Finesse Game

233 attempts at a median of 25 feet with 36 per cent from inside 20. The release is the whole player and it is among the quickest in the league — the puck is gone before a goaltender has finished moving.

24 assists in 78 games. The passing is functional and it always has been; he is a finisher who arrives at the right spot and needs somebody to find him, and on this roster he found two teenagers who could.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 205 and he does not play a physical game. He does not forecheck with force and he does not go to the wall.

14 penalty minutes in 78 games is among the lowest rates of any regular in this edition. He is disciplined, he does not retaliate, and none of the value is in that half of the game.

The Intangibles

Forty-seventh overall in 2010, a Stanley Cup with Los Angeles in 2014, and 890 games and 575 points across six organisations.

He is 33 and signed a four-year contract with San Jose in the summer of 2024, which was widely read as an asset the club intended to trade. Thirty goals makes that easier.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 951 minutes

Expected goals
49%
41st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.9%
63rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 38 for, 40 against. Expected: 38.6 and 40.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
49th
Numbers
41st

The two rank him within 8 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 72 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 951 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
SJS took 44.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.0% — 4.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 951 minutes at five-on-five — 54th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Macklin Celebrini51.0%47.0%48.4%
William Eklund55.3%44.2%45.6%
Mario Ferraro46.2%51.2%46.4%

51.0% together, 47.0% for him apart and 48.4% for Celebrini apart. He was worse away from Celebrini, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Celebrini did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

299 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 30 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 36% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 19% from beyond forty.