Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

71

Macklin Celebrini

San Jose Sharks Center

63 points and 25 goals as an 18-year-old on the worst hockey team in the league, and the Calder Trophy for it.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2024-25SJS70253863-312880423610.619:47
2025-26 so far
Career70253863-312880423610.619:47

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

25 goals and 38 assists in 70 games — 63 points at 18, at 19:47 a night, with 8 power-play goals and 4 game-winners on 236 shots, the most on the club. Minus-31.

49.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 47th percentile — dead average, on a club that was 31st in the league in chance share. His ice went 34-42 against an expectation of 41.12-41.72. Being the only line on this roster that broke even is the most impressive number in the chapter.

The Finesse Game

236 attempts at a median of 33 feet with 22 per cent from inside 20 — he shoots from range more than he will in three years, because at 18 on this roster he was rarely handed anything closer.

The skating and the hands are both high-end and the release is the thing that separates him: quick, deceptive, and he does not need to set his feet. 38 assists says the passing is already the more advanced half, and he plays a mature game in his own end for a teenager.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 190 and still filling out. He does not avoid contact, he goes to the net, and he wins more pucks on the wall than a rookie his size has any business winning.

28 penalty minutes in 70 games. He is neither an agitator nor a man who gets pushed around, and the physical development is the thing that will decide whether he is very good or something more.

The Intangibles

First overall in 2024 after a Hobey Baker season at Boston University at 17, and the Calder Trophy in his first year.

70 games and 63 points on a club that won 20 of 82. He is 19. Everything San Jose does for the next decade is downstream of him.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,007 minutes

Expected goals
49.6%
48th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.1%
43rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 34 for, 42 against. Expected: 41.1 and 41.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
97th
Numbers
48th

The report ranks him 49 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 84 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1007 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
SJS took 44.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.6% — 5.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,007 minutes at five-on-five — 62nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Tyler Toffoli51.0%48.4%47.0%
William Eklund53.8%46.3%46.2%
Mario Ferraro47.5%51.1%45.9%

51.0% together, 48.4% for him apart and 47.0% for Toffoli apart. Toffoli was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Toffoli than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

356 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 26 of them goals. His median goal came from 27 feet. 22% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.