Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

38

Mario Ferraro

San Jose Sharks Defense

Twenty-one minutes a night on the worst club in the league, a minus-25, and a career minus-120.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20SJS612911-1530000633.215:53
2020-21SJS5611617-622000581.722:26
2021-22SJS6321214-516001494.123:00
2022-23SJS724711-3124000666.121:36
2023-24SJS7831821-38360001242.422:52
2024-25SJS7851217-2553001796.321:24
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—408177491-1201810024393.921:17

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

5 goals and 12 assists in 78 games — 17 points at 21:24 a night, the largest assignment on the club, minus-25, with 53 penalty minutes.

46.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 21st percentile, across 1,415 minutes. His ice went 49-76 against an expectation of 54.94-63.22 — seven goals of scoring missing and eleven conceded above expectation, which is mostly the goaltending.

The Finesse Game

79 attempts in 78 games at a median of 55 feet with 74 per cent from beyond 40 and 7 per cent from inside 20. He does not shoot and 5 goals is a career high.

The first pass is the puck game and under a heavy forecheck it becomes the chip off the wall. 12 assists is what a defensive defenceman produces on a club that scored 210 goals.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 200 and he plays a great deal larger. He blocks shots at a rate among the highest in the league, he finishes every check, and he clears his crease against men who outweigh him considerably.

53 penalty minutes in 78 games. He does not back out of anything and a share of the total is the answer to something done to a teammate.

The Intangibles

A second-round pick in 2017 out of Massachusetts, and 408 games with a career minus-120 — one of the largest in the league and a fact about six seasons in San Jose rather than about him.

He is 27, he has been the club’s most-used defenceman for four years, and he has played every one of them on hockey teams that finished near the bottom of the league.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    78 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “**He blocks shots at a rate among the highest in the league**, he finishes every check, and he clears his crease against men who outweigh him considerably.”

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “**He blocks shots at a rate among the highest in the league**, he finishes every check, and he clears his crease against men who outweigh him considerably.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “**He blocks shots at a rate among the highest in the league**, he finishes every check, and he clears his crease against men who outweigh him considerably.”

  • retaliatesa strength· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “He does not back out of anything and a share of the total is the answer to something done to a teammate.”

  • transitionhe lacks it· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “The first pass is the puck game and under a heavy forecheck it becomes the chip off the wall.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,415 minutes

Expected goals
46.5%
23rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47%
25th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 49 for, 76 against. Expected: 54.9 and 63.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
42nd
Numbers
23rd

The two rank him within 19 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 78 games

Top speed
22.4 mph
77th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.74 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.93 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.6 mph
76th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 89.7

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1415 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
SJS took 44.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 46.5% — 2.3 above the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,415 minutes at five-on-five — 96th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Timothy Liljegren47.6%45.7%47.1%
Tyler Toffoli47.5%46.1%49.6%
William Eklund49.7%45.3%50.1%

47.6% together, 45.7% for him apart and 47.1% for Liljegren apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

124 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 29 feet. 8% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 74% from beyond forty.