Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

2

Will Smith

San Jose Sharks Center

45 points in a rookie season at 19, on the club with the worst chance share in the league.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2024-25SJS74182745-151850112714.215:51
2025-26 so far
Career74182745-151850112714.215:51

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

18 goals and 27 assists in 74 games — 45 points as a 19-year-old rookie, at 15:51 a night, with 5 power-play goals on 127 shots. Minus-15.

45.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 16th percentile. His ice went 33-37 against an expectation of 34.87-41.90 — five fewer goals conceded than the chances predicted, on a line that was badly outplayed.

The Finesse Game

127 attempts at a median of 33 feet with 24 per cent from inside 20 and 29 per cent from beyond 40, converting at 14.2 per cent. The shot is good and the location is a rookie’s.

The hands are the reason he was drafted fourth overall. He makes passes through traffic that nobody else on this roster attempts and a good share of them arrive; 27 assists at 19 on a club that scored 204 goals is a real number.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 180 and among the lightest forwards in this chapter. He does not forecheck with force, he does not win pucks on the wall, and he is moved off the puck by grown men.

18 penalty minutes in 74 games. There is nothing wrong with the willingness and there is a great deal wrong with the weight, and that is a two-year problem rather than a permanent one.

The Intangibles

Fourth overall in 2023 after a record-setting season with the United States development programme, and a year at Boston College before turning professional.

74 games and 45 points at 19. He is 20, he is the second-best forward on this roster, and he is a year older than the best one.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 919 minutes

Expected goals
45.4%
16th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.2%
26th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 33 for, 37 against. Expected: 34.9 and 41.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
60th
Numbers
16th

The report ranks him 44 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 74 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 919 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
SJS took 44.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.4% — 1.2 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 919 minutes at five-on-five — 48th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Macklin Celebrini49.3%43.1%49.8%
Mario Ferraro51.3%42.0%44.8%
Fabian Zetterlund45.0%45.7%44.4%

49.3% together, 43.1% for him apart and 49.8% for Celebrini apart. He was worse away from Celebrini, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Celebrini did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

190 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 19 of them goals. His median goal came from 26 feet. 24% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 29% from beyond forty.