Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

6

Adam Larsson

Seattle Kraken Defense

Eight hundred and forty-eight games and not one power-play goal in any of them.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2011-12NJD6521618-720000682.920:37
2012-13NJD37066+412000300.018:06
2013-14NJD26123-112001205.017:47
2014-15NJD6432124+234001913.320:58
2015-16NJD8231518+1577001654.622:31
2016-17EDM7941519+2155000854.720:09
2017-18EDM634913+1034001924.321:56
2018-19EDM8231720-28440001172.621:37
2019-20EDM49156035000611.619:50
2020-21EDM564610+224000527.719:39
2021-22SEA8281725-23550031196.722:17
2022-23SEA8282533+27470121435.623:38
2023-24SEA8141418+6550011303.122:57
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—84845168213+28504011010734.221:21

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

81 games, 4 goals and 14 assists for 18 points, none on the power play, 55 penalty minutes, 22:57 a night and plus-6, with 1 game-winner. He took 48.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,556 minutes — the twelfth-most in this edition — and his ice went 57-49 against an expectation of 58.50-62.33.

Two goals of finishing below what the chances were worth and thirteen goals of goaltending above them. Twenty-two and a half minutes a night on the club with the eighth-best chance suppression in the league is the job, and he did it for 81 games.

The Finesse Game

177 attempts at a median of 45 feet with 62 per cent of them from beyond forty and 14 per cent from inside twenty, 122 of those on goal, converted at 3.1 per cent against a career 4.19 across 1,073 shots.

Zero power-play goals in 848 career games — the second-longest such run in this edition, behind Brenden Dillon. There is no offence here and there never has been; 168 career assists is the outlet pass counted up over thirteen seasons.

The Physical Game

He is 6-3 and 207 and took 55 penalty minutes.

504 career penalty minutes in 848 games. He closes gaps early and finishes the check rather than reaching for the puck, and at that size the man arrives whether the puck is still there or not — which is where a good share of those minutes come from.

The Intangibles

Fourth overall in 2011 by New Jersey, thirteen seasons, three organisations, and 213 points in 848 games.

A career plus-28 across thirteen seasons of the hardest defensive assignment on whatever club he is on. He was the fourth pick in his draft and has spent his career being the reason somebody else’s first line does not score.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    16.9% of his attempts in the slot, 90th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    19:13 a game at five-on-five, 94th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    60% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 94th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He closes gaps early and finishes the check rather than reaching for the puck, and at that size the man arrives whether the puck is still there or not — which is where a good share of those minutes come from.”

  • playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “There is no offence here and there never has been; 168 career assists is the outlet pass counted up over thirteen seasons.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “A career plus-28 across thirteen seasons of the hardest defensive assignment on whatever club he is on.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,556 minutes

Expected goals
48.4%
41st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.9%
71st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 57 for, 49 against. Expected: 58.5 and 62.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
57th
Numbers
41st

The two rank him within 16 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 81 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
71st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.57 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.18 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.9 mph
71st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1556 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
SEA took 50.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.4% — 2.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,556 minutes at five-on-five — 98th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Vince Dunn48.4%48.4%54.9%
Yanni Gourde47.2%48.9%50.6%
Matty Beniers50.0%47.7%52.3%

48.4% together, 48.4% for him apart and 54.9% for Dunn apart. Dunn was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

177 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 27 feet. 14% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 62% from beyond forty.