Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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2

Brian Dumoulin

Anaheim Ducks Defense

Fifty-four per cent of the chances in Seattle — the best number any man on this roster produced last season, and he was somewhere else.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14PIT6011+1400030.019:14
2014-15PIT810102000425.015:40
2015-16PIT7901616+11140001010.018:53
2016-17PIT7011415014000781.320:33
2017-18PIT8051318-5300011024.920:37
2018-19PIT7632023+3120000993.021:02
2019-20PIT28178+1710010352.921:03
2020-21PIT4141014+1812000508.022:21
2021-22PIT7631518+2424000913.321:49
2022-23PIT8212425-416000821.220:38
2023-24SEA8061016+320001698.717:01
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—62625130155+961660127143.520:11

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 10 assists in 80 games for Seattle — 16 points at 17:01 a night, plus-3, on 69 shots with 20 penalty minutes. Six goals is very nearly a quarter of the twenty-five he has scored in 626 NHL games.

54.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,236 minutes, the 85th percentile — the best figure any player on this roster produced last season. His ice went 38-38 against an expectation of 48.59-40.64.

The Finesse Game

69 attempts at a median of 53 feet, with 72 per cent from beyond 40 and 6 per cent from inside 20. Twenty-five goals in eleven NHL seasons; the shot is not why he is here.

The first pass is early, short and to the correct side of the ice, and it is the whole of his puck game. He does not carry it out and he does not need to — he gets it to somebody who can before the forecheck arrives.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 215. He clears the front of his own net and blocks shots, and the size is used for position rather than for punishment — he arrives, he takes the space, and the check is finished without being sought out.

20 penalty minutes in 80 games and 166 in 626 for his career. He does not retaliate, he does not take liberties, and he is one of the least penalised defencemen of his generation.

The Intangibles

Fifty-first overall in 2009 by Carolina, traded to Pittsburgh before he played a game there, and two Stanley Cups and a career plus-96 across 626 games.

He is 33 and was signed here in the summer. He is the most defensively responsible man on this blue line by a distance — a defenceman who has spent a decade being the quiet half of a pair and is very good at it, arriving on a club that has nobody to be the loud half.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    54.5% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 49.3% for his club in the minutes he sat: +5.2, 94th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “**He is the most defensively responsible man on this blue line by a distance** — a defenceman who has spent a decade being the quiet half of a pair and is very good at it, arriving on a club that has nobody to be the loud half.”

  • clears-the-creasea strength· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “**He clears the front of his own net and blocks shots**, and the size is used for position rather than for punishment — he arrives, he takes the space, and the check is finished without being sought out.”

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “**He clears the front of his own net and blocks shots**, and the size is used for position rather than for punishment — he arrives, he takes the space, and the check is finished without being sought out.”

  • retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “He does not retaliate, he does not take liberties, and he is one of the least penalised defencemen of his generation.”

  • takes-libertieshe lacks it· crosses the line and knows where it is

    “He does not retaliate, he does not take liberties, and he is one of the least penalised defencemen of his generation.”

  • transitionhe lacks it· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He does not carry it out and he does not need to — he gets it to somebody who can before the forecheck arrives.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,236 minutes

Expected goals
54.5%
85th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.8%
84th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 38 for, 38 against. Expected: 48.6 and 40.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
24th
Numbers
85th

The numbers rank him 61 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 80 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
54th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.42 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.34 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.9 mph
22nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 with SEA · 1236 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
SEA took 50.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.5% — 3.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 1,236 minutes at five-on-five — 85th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Justin Schultz53.3%55.9%51.4%
Yanni Gourde55.0%54.2%46.8%
Eeli Tolvanen56.5%53.7%47.2%

53.3% together, 55.9% for him apart and 51.4% for Schultz apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

111 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 35 feet. 6% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 72% from beyond forty.