Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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29

Vince Dunn

Seattle Kraken Defense

Forty-six points in 59 games at 23:05, and 78 penalty minutes to go with them.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18STL7551924+1202011383.617:14
2018-19STL78122335+14453041508.017:32
2019-20STL7191423+15274011386.516:16
2020-21STL4361420-818200738.219:15
2021-22SEA7372835-21632001215.820:41
2022-23SEA81145064+28550021499.423:40
2023-24SEA59113546+8784001209.223:05
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—48064183247+3730617088897.219:39

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

59 games, 11 goals and 35 assists for 46 points, 4 on the power play, 78 penalty minutes, 23:05 a night and plus-8. He took 49.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,133 minutes, the 48th percentile, and his ice went 46-33 against an expectation of 46.56-47.63.

Level with the chances at the offensive end and fifteen goals of goaltending above them at the other — the best such figure on the club. Forty-six points in 59 games is a better rate than the 64 he scored in 81 the season before.

The Finesse Game

168 attempts at a median of 51 feet with 70 per cent of them from beyond forty and 5 per cent from inside twenty, 116 of those on goal, converted at 9.2 per cent against a career 7.20 across 889 shots.

183 career assists against 64 goals in 480 games. He is the only defenceman on this club who carries the puck out rather than passing it out, and the 35 assists came from him being the man who starts the rush rather than the man who finishes it.

The Physical Game

He is 6-0 and 200 and took 78 penalty minutes in 59 games.

306 career penalty minutes in 480 games, and last season’s rate was the highest on the club. He plays with an edge that does not match his size — he answers back, holds up in front of his own net and takes the extra two for it more often than a defenceman with 46 points should.

The Intangibles

Fifty-sixth overall in 2015 by St. Louis, seven seasons, two organisations, and 247 points in 480 games.

A career plus-37, and 35, 64 and 46 points in his three Seattle seasons. Fifty-nine games is the concern; twenty-three minutes a night when he plays is the reason it matters.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-shot· beats a goaltender from range

    6 of 117 attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 5.1%, 96th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.21) · 16% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    19:12 a game at five-on-five, 94th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    60% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 92nd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He is the only defenceman on this club who carries the puck out rather than passing it out, and the 35 assists came from him being the man who starts the rush rather than the man who finishes it.”

  • retaliatesa strength· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “He plays with an edge that does not match his size — he answers back, holds up in front of his own net and takes the extra two for it more often than a defenceman with 46 points should.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “183 career assists against 64 goals in 480 games.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,133 minutes

Expected goals
49.4%
48th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.1%
73rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 46 for, 33 against. Expected: 46.6 and 47.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
84th
Numbers
48th

The report ranks him 36 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 77 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 59 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
84th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.7

Bursts over 20 mph
0.68 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.21 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
100.7 mph
95th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.2

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1133 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
SEA took 50.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.4% — 1.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,133 minutes at five-on-five — 76th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Adam Larsson48.4%54.9%48.4%
Matty Beniers51.7%48.2%51.1%
Jordan Eberle55.7%46.3%54.8%

48.4% together, 54.9% for him apart and 48.4% for Larsson apart. He was better away from Larsson, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Larsson.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

168 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 11 of them goals. His median goal came from 45 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 70% from beyond forty.