Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

24

Nick Seeler

Philadelphia Flyers Defense

The 2nd-most penalties drawn of 202 defencemen and the 4th-lowest expected-goal share, out of the softest chair on the blue line.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18MIN22044+1021000170.014:32
2018-19MIN71257-464001673.012:20
2019-20MIN/CHI12011-81500050.011:55
2021-22PHI43123-329000323.113:05
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—14831215-51290011212.512:51

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

43 games, 1 goal and 2 assists at 13:05 a night, minus-3, twenty-nine penalty minutes, 32 shots. One hundred and thirty-first overall in 2011 by Minnesota — the fifth round — and four seasons, 148 games, 15 points.

The Finesse Game

0.34 even-strength points per 60 is the 1st percentile among defencemen, which is the floor of the position, and none of his points came on the power play.

3.41 shots per 60 is the 22nd percentile from a 56.4-foot median, the 3rd-longest of the 202 — behind his own team-mate Justin Braun and Luke Schenn. Nine per cent from the slot.

40.6 per cent of the expected goals is the 4th-lowest of the 202 defencemen and 44.9 per cent of the attempts the 10th percentile.

And the deployment offers no cover at all. He started 51.7 per cent of his end-zone shifts in the attacking end, the 283rd-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts — dead level, and the softest chair of any defenceman on this roster. Travis Sanheim took 42.0 per cent, Ivan Provorov 42.7, Justin Braun 41.2.

The man with the easiest starts on the blue line posted its worst shares by a distance. His ice went 17-23 against an expectation of 17.03-24.90.

The Physical Game

7.15 blocks per 60 is the 4th-most of the 202 defencemen who played forty games.

1.49 penalties drawn per 60 is the 2nd-most of the 202 defencemen who played forty games, against 1.07 taken, and the net figure is the 99th percentile.

8.00 hits per 60 is the 88th percentile at 6-3 and 197 pounds. Blocks, hits and drawn penalties all in the top eighth of the position, and every one of them happens in his own end.

The Intangibles

22.2 mph is the 60th percentile, 2.6 bursts per 60 the 78th, 8.56 miles per 60 the 59th. The skating is unremarkable in every direction, which for a third-pair defenceman is not a complaint.

He is 29 with 148 NHL games across five calendar years and has never played a full season. The three physical numbers are top-of-the-position and the possession shares are bottom-of-it, out of a chair that was the easiest on the club. That is a specialist, and the specialty is the part of the rink you do not want to be in.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “7.15 blocks per 60 is the 4th-most of the 202 defencemen who played forty games.”

  • agitatora strength· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “1.49 penalties drawn per 60 is the 2nd-most of the 202 defencemen who played forty games, against 1.07 taken, and the net figure is the 99th percentile.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 523 minutes

Expected goals
40.6%
4th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
44.9%
15th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 17 for, 23 against. Expected: 17.0 and 24.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
26th
Numbers
4th

The report ranks him 22 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 55 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 43 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
73rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.56 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.87 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.5 mph
51st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 523 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
PHI took 46.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 40.6% — 5.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 523 minutes at five-on-five — 21st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Keith Yandle37.0%46.5%44.6%
Zack MacEwen42.8%39.8%38.2%
James van Riemsdyk48.2%37.6%47.9%

37.0% together, 46.5% for him apart and 44.6% for Yandle apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

47 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 52 feet. 9% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 89% from beyond forty.