Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.
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79

Carter Hart

Philadelphia Flyers Goaltender

Four seasons at .9170, .9136, .8766 and .9049, and 4,238 career shots that still do not say which one he is.

SeasonTeamGPWLOTLGAGAASOSASV%
2018-19PHI3116131812.830976.917
2019-20PHI4324133952.4211100.914
2020-21PHI279115893.671721.877
2021-22PHI45132471373.1611441.905
2022-23 so far——————————
Career—1466261164022.9734238.905

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

45 games, 13-24-7, a .9049 save percentage and a 3.16 goals-against, one shutout on 1,441 shots. That is 34th of the 53 goaltenders who played twenty-five games. Forty-eighth overall in 2016, four seasons, 146 games.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 196 pounds, and 24 years old with 146 NHL games already behind him — he has faced 4,238 shots before his twenty-fifth birthday, which almost nobody does.

The four seasons do not agree with each other. .9170 across 976 shots as a 20-year-old. .9136 across 1,100 the year after. .8766 across 721 in the season the club collapsed. .9049 across 1,441 last year.

The career figure is .9051 and the honest reading is that it sits almost exactly at the arithmetic mean of a good rookie year, a good second year, a disastrous third and an ordinary fourth. The spread across those four is four hundred points of save percentage.

Last season is the largest single sample he has ever produced and it came out below league average.

The Mental Game

Philadelphia rated 19th in the league in goaltending at minus-7.2 goals saved above expectation, which is a modest deficit and does not fall on him alone: Martin Jones took thirty-five games at .9001 — 40th of the same 53 — and has gone to Seattle, and Felix Sandstrom took five.

The skaters in front of him were 27th in attempt share, 28th in chance share and 29th in expected goals against per 60 at even strength, and the club spent the 18th-largest amount of time a man short and killed at the 20th-best rate.

Two hundred and ninety-eight goals against is 27th in the league. A .9049 behind that structure is not the reason and it is not an alibi either.

The Intangibles

Nothing here measures how he plays a rebound, tracks a puck through traffic or handles the puck behind his net. What it measures is 4,238 shots at .9051 from a man who is 24, which is an enormous body of evidence about a career that has barely started.

The 2020-21 season is the one that has to be explained. .8766 across 721 shots is not a slump, it is a different goaltender, and the two seasons before it and the season after it all sit between .9049 and .9170.

A club rebuilding around a 24-year-old with this much mileage and this much variance is making the largest single bet on its roster, and the four seasons on file give it no way to price the bet.