Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

9

Ivan Provorov

Philadelphia Flyers Defense

The 13th-heaviest ice time of 202 defencemen and the 23rd-most giveaways, at 25 with six full seasons behind him.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17PHI8262430-7340011613.721:59
2017-18PHI82172441+17202022038.424:09
2018-19PHI8271926-16320011454.825:07
2019-20PHI69132336+11247031508.724:51
2020-21PHI5671926+4280021265.625:00
2021-22PHI7992231-20341011705.324:53
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—45059131190-11172100109556.224:16

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

79 games, 9 goals and 22 assists at 24:53 a night, minus-20, thirty-four penalty minutes, 170 shots. That ice time is the 13th-heaviest of the 202 defencemen who played forty games. Seventh overall in 2015, six seasons, 450 games, 190 points, and he has played at least fifty-six in every one of them.

The Finesse Game

0.84 even-strength points per 60 is the 36th percentile, which for a man taking twenty-five minutes a night is the number that matters most and it is below the middle of the position.

5.19 shots per 60 is the 70th percentile from a 54-foot median in the 88th — a point shot, and fifteen per cent from the slot at the 76th says he does get down there occasionally.

0.52 takeaways per 60 is the 12th percentile against 2.56 giveaways at the 89th, the 23rd-most of the 202. That is the worst puck ledger in the file and it comes attached to the most ice time.

47.1 per cent of the expected goals and 47.5 per cent of the attempts, out of 42.7 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 128th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts. His ice went 58-72 against an expectation of 58.74-66.09.

The Physical Game

2.26 hits per 60 is the 21st percentile at 6-1 and 224 pounds, and 5.25 blocks per 60 is the 79th. He gets in the way rather than finishing checks.

0.34 penalties drawn per 60 is the 36th percentile against 0.52 taken, and thirty-four penalty minutes in seventy-nine games is a quiet season for a man playing this much.

The Intangibles

2:40 short-handed a night is the 87th percentile among defencemen, on top of the 13th-heaviest overall workload of the 202.

8.84 miles per 60 is the 91st percentile against a 22.2 mph top speed at the 60th and 1.9 bursts per 60 at the 62nd. He covers an enormous amount of ground without often being at speed, which is what twenty-five minutes a night on a club chasing the puck looks like.

He is 25 and has taken more than twenty-four minutes a night in five of six seasons. The workload is real and the possession shares underneath it have never been better than league average, and at some point the two of those stop being separate facts.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    79 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    19:15 a game at five-on-five, 91st percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “2:40 short-handed a night is the 87th percentile among defencemen, on top of the 13th-heaviest overall workload of the 202.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,521 minutes

Expected goals
47.1%
33rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.5%
33rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 58 for, 72 against. Expected: 58.7 and 66.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
53rd
Numbers
33rd

The report ranks him 20 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 79 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
74th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.80 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.67 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.5 mph
58th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1521 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
PHI took 46.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.1% — 1.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,521 minutes at five-on-five — 98th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Justin Braun44.4%49.6%45.1%
Travis Konecny50.6%45.4%47.7%
James van Riemsdyk49.7%46.0%46.8%

44.4% together, 49.6% for him apart and 45.1% for Braun apart. He was better away from Braun, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Braun.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

212 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 9 of them goals. His median goal came from 29 feet. 8% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 68% from beyond forty.