Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

14

Nick Suzuki

Montreal Canadiens Center

89 points and a 17.4 per cent rate, and a line that came out 70-46 against an expected 54-51.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20MTL71132841-1566011389.415:59
2020-21MTL56152641-52651111013.618:11
2021-22MTL82214061-293081418611.320:31
2022-23MTL82264066-133373216216.121:06
2023-24MTL82334477-1436120118517.821:16
2024-25MTL82305989+19842917217.420:04
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—455138237375-571394271895314.519:41

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

30 goals and 59 assists in 82 games for 89 points, plus-19, on 20:04 a night with 9 game-winners — the most points on the club by 19.

51.4 per cent at five-on-five, the 66th percentile. His on-ice goals were 70-46 against an expected 54.1-51.2 — 16 goals missing at one end and 9 too many at the other, the largest combined gap on the roster. The plus-19 came almost entirely on special teams.

8 penalty minutes across 82 games.

The Finesse Game

The passing is the best on the club and the most underrated in the league. He plays a patient, deliberate game, holds pucks below the goal line, and delivers into space rather than onto a stick — 59 assists on a team that scored 245 goals is a genuine total.

17.4 per cent shooting on 172 attempts is well above his career rate and a third of them come from inside 20 feet, so the locations support something high without supporting that. He is a distributor who has learned to shoot, not the reverse.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 207, built low and strong. He protects the puck well below the goal line and wins more battles than the frame suggests, and he does not initiate contact anywhere.

8 penalty minutes in 82 games at 20 minutes a night is one of the two or three most disciplined seasons in this edition. He is never late.

The Intangibles

The captain at 26, seven seasons in the most demanding market in hockey, and a rise from a throw-in in a trade to a genuine first-line centre.

The projection is 85 points and a chance share that should improve as the club does. What his record does not yet contain is a defensive season worthy of the minutes — a 39th-percentile share for a first-line centre on a playoff club is the thing between him and being discussed as an elite one.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    7 of his 30 goals late or in overtime, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.10 penalty minutes a game over 82, 2nd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “The passing is the best on the club and the most underrated in the league.”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “He protects the puck well below the goal line and wins more battles than the frame suggests, and he does not initiate contact anywhere.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He protects the puck well below the goal line and wins more battles than the frame suggests, and he does not initiate contact anywhere.”

  • nastyhe lacks it· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “8 penalty minutes in 82 games at 20 minutes a night is one of the two or three most disciplined seasons in this edition.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “The captain at 26, seven seasons in the most demanding market in hockey, and a rise from a throw-in in a trade to a genuine first-line centre.”

  • defensively-responsiblehe lacks it· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “What his record does not yet contain is a defensive season worthy of the minutes — a 39th-percentile share for a first-line centre on a playoff club is the thing between him and being discussed as an elite one.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,143 minutes

Expected goals
51.4%
66th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52%
73rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 70 for, 46 against. Expected: 54.1 and 51.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
96th
Numbers
66th

The report ranks him 30 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 83 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 82 games

Top speed
22.9 mph
80th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.2

Bursts over 20 mph
2.29 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.20 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.2 mph
61st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 83.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1143 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
MTL took 48.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.4% — 2.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,143 minutes at five-on-five — 80th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Cole Caufield51.8%48.7%36.9%
Juraj Slafkovský51.8%50.4%43.3%
Mike Matheson47.5%55.2%46.1%

51.8% together, 48.7% for him apart and 36.9% for Caufield apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

256 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 30 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 33% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 16% from beyond forty.