Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

8

Drew Doughty

Los Angeles Kings Defense

Twenty-six minutes a night, more than any man who played a full season, at the ninth percentile in top speed.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2008-09LAK8162127-17563011264.823:50
2009-10LAK82164359+205490514211.324:59
2010-11LAK76112940+13685031397.925:39
2011-12LAK77102636-2693031685.924:54
2012-13LAK4861622+4363001145.326:24
2013-14LAK78102737+17646021775.725:43
2014-15LAK8273946+3561022193.229:00
2015-16LAK82143751+24529131977.128:01
2016-17LAK82123244+8465011816.627:09
2017-18LAK82105060+23543142054.926:50
2018-19LAK8283745-34447011545.226:36
2019-20LAK6772835-16365021415.025:49
2020-21LAK5682634-14266001017.926:23
2021-22LAK3972431+430401997.125:44
2022-23LAK8194352+12344021456.226:14
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—1095141478619+457257323023086.126:15

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

9 goals and 43 assists in 81 games — 52 points — at 26:14 a night. Plus-12, 145 shots, 34 penalty minutes.

That 26:14 is second in the league to Makar’s 26:23, and Makar played sixty games to his eighty-one. No man who played a full season was on the ice more.

53.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 78th percentile, with his ice at 59-55 against an expectation of 65.72-57.22 — seven goals short of the chances at the offensive end.

His zone starts came out exactly even at 50.2 per cent, the 47th percentile, so the assignment was not sheltered and was not punishing either. What was not even was the workload: twenty-six minutes a night, at thirty-three, and 52 points came out of it. The season before he had played thirty-nine games.

Fifteen seasons, 1,095 games, 619 points, all of them in Los Angeles.

The Finesse Game

145 shots at a median of 49 feet, 7 per cent from inside twenty and 72 per cent from beyond forty.

Beyond forty: 105 shots on goal, 4 goals, 3.81 per cent — a shade above the league rate for defencemen of 3.17. Inside forty: 38 shots, 5 goals.

Ninety-five slap shots out of 199 tracked attempts — nearly half, at a time when the league-wide share of unblocked shots taken as slap shots has fallen from 17.39 per cent in 2017-18 to 12.07, and among defencemen from 35.89 to 24.17. He is one of the last men playing the position the way it was played when he arrived.

96.2 mph at the 85th percentile, which for once is a fair reading rather than a slap-shot artefact: he takes enough of them for the number to mean something.

Forty-three assists equals the second-highest total of his career, and he first reached it in 2009-10. The puck moves through him — Los Angeles ran the sixth-best shot-attempt share in the league and he was on the ice for a quarter of the game.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 210, and 34 penalty minutes.

Top speed 21.3 mph, the 9th percentile. Distance 3.60 miles a game, the 98th.

That combination is not the finding it looks like. Of the 192 defencemen who played forty games last season, 59 covered three miles a game, and 24 of those 59 never broke 22 mph. It is the top-pair job description, not a verdict on a man’s skating: play twenty-six minutes and the mileage arrives whether you are quick or not.

What can be said is that he is at the bottom of the measured range even inside that group, and he is thirty-three. He defends with position, angle and stick, and he has not beaten anyone to a puck in a straight line for some years.

The Intangibles

Second overall in 2008, a Norris Trophy, two Stanley Cups, and a sixteenth season in the same sweater ahead of him.

Los Angeles allowed the second-fewest expected goals per sixty at even strength in the entire league last season. He plays a quarter of every game against the other club’s best line, from a zone-start share that is dead even. How much of that second-place rate is him is not separable from the system, and the book will not pretend it is.

The reservation is the age and nothing else. The 21.3 mph is not going up.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    19:47 a game at five-on-five, 97th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “Second overall in 2008, a Norris Trophy, two Stanley Cups, and a sixteenth season in the same sweater ahead of him.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “He plays a quarter of every game against the other club's best line, from a zone-start share that is dead even.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “Forty-three assists equals the second-highest total of his career, and he first reached it in 2009-10.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,603 minutes

Expected goals
53.5%
78th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.5%
75th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 59 for, 55 against. Expected: 65.7 and 57.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
94th
Numbers
78th

The two rank him within 16 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 79 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 81 games

Top speed
21.3 mph
39th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.41 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.60 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.2 mph
79th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1603 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
LAK took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.5% — level with the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,603 minutes at five-on-five — 100th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Mikey Anderson53.7%52.4%41.3%
Anze Kopitar55.8%51.9%52.6%
Adrian Kempe55.9%52.1%52.1%

53.7% together, 52.4% for him apart and 41.3% for Anderson apart. Anderson was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Anderson than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

197 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 9 of them goals. His median goal came from 38 feet. 7% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 72% from beyond forty.