Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

29

Pheonix Copley

Los Angeles Kings Goaltender

Twenty-four wins in thirty-seven appearances on a .9029, which is the clearest thing this book can show you about what a goaltender's record measures.

SeasonTeamGPWLOTLGAGAASOSASV%
2015-16STL100012.4606.833
2016-17STL101055.09029.828
2018-19WSH271673742.901776.905
2021-22WSH201053.11041.878
2022-23LAK372463922.641947.903
2023-24 so far——————————
Career—68401561772.8021799.902

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

24-6-3 in 37 games, .9029, 2.64, one shutout on 947 shots.

Read those two numbers together, because they do not belong in the same sentence anywhere else in this book. Twenty-four wins against six regulation losses, on a save percentage below the league average for a man who plays thirty games.

The explanation is the club. Los Angeles allowed the second-fewest expected goals per sixty at even strength in the entire league, and a goaltender playing behind that wins games he has not earned. The club’s goaltending value still finished twenty-third, which is the model saying the same thing from the other direction.

A thirty-one-year-old on his first extended run of NHL work.

Five seasons, 68 games.

The Finesse Game

6-4 and 205, and a blocking style built on size and on staying square.

He is deep in his crease and lets the puck come to him. Against the volume Los Angeles allows — the second-lowest expected-goals-against rate per sixty in the league — that works, because most of what arrives is from outside and taken cleanly.

What the record cannot tell you is how he handles the games where that structure breaks down, because on 947 shots in a season he faced very few of them. Sixty-eight career games is not enough to answer it either.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, out of North Pole, Alaska, by way of Michigan Tech, and nine professional seasons to sixty-eight NHL games.

He was thirty-one before he played thirty games in a season. Nothing about that path suggests a starter, and nothing about the .9029 contradicts it.

This book records the 24-6-3 as an artefact of the club in front of him and not as a description of the goaltender, and it is the single cleanest example of that distinction in the edition.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “**Undrafted**, out of North Pole, Alaska, by way of Michigan Tech, and nine professional seasons to sixty-eight NHL games.”

  • plays-deepa strength· takes the net away by occupying it

    “He is deep in his crease and lets the puck come to him.”