Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

28

Jaret Anderson-Dolan

Los Angeles Kings Center

Two penalty minutes in forty-six games, and five seasons that have produced ninety-six.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19LAK5011-2000060.011:36
2019-20LAK4000-1000020.010:16
2020-21LAK347411-961023718.913:31
2021-22LAK7000-3400050.013:47
2022-23LAK467512-1120025413.010:37
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—96141024-261210410413.511:55

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

7 goals and 5 assists in 46 games — 12 points — at 10:37 a night. Minus-11, 54 shots at 13.0 per cent, two penalty minutes.

Two penalty minutes in forty-six games is one minor penalty across half a season.

49.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 47th percentile, with his ice at 18-26 against an expectation of 17.15-17.58 across 458 minutes. Eight goals more against than the chances deserved, which on 458 minutes is noise rather than evidence.

Five seasons, 96 games, 24 points.

The Finesse Game

54 shots at a median of 27 feet, 36 per cent from inside twenty and 22 per cent from beyond forty.

Beyond forty: 12 shots on goal, 1 goal. Inside forty: 41 shots, 6 goals.

Fifty-four shots is a quarter of a regular season for a top-six forward and nothing can be concluded from the finishing rate either way.

86.5 mph at the 19th percentile, on one slap shot.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 200, and two penalty minutes.

Top speed 22.9 mph, the 82nd percentile; bursts 2.0 a game, the 86th; 1.74 miles a game, the 5th.

The speed readings are the best thing in his file. He accelerates like a top-six forward and plays ten minutes on the fourth line, and the distance figure is a description of the ice time rather than of the man.

He is not physical and does not need to be at his size; what the two penalty minutes say is that he does not chase and does not retaliate.

The Intangibles

Forty-first overall in 2017 out of Spokane, and five seasons in which he has never played fifty NHL games.

58.4 per cent of his five-on-five shifts started in the attacking zone, the 85th percentile — a soft share for a fourth-line forward, which makes the minus-11 and the 47th-percentile chance share read worse rather than better.

He is twenty-four with ninety-six games in five years. The speed says there is something here; the games played say the club has not been convinced, and after five seasons that is itself a piece of evidence.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.04 penalty minutes a game over 46, 2nd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He accelerates like a top-six forward and plays ten minutes on the fourth line, and the distance figure is a description of the ice time rather than of the man.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 458 minutes

Expected goals
49.4%
47th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.4%
41st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 18 for, 26 against. Expected: 17.1 and 17.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
29th
Numbers
47th

The two rank him within 18 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 46 games

Top speed
22.9 mph
85th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.02 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.74 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.5 mph
45th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 458 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
LAK took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.4% — 4.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 458 minutes at five-on-five — 13th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Sean Walker53.1%46.8%51.5%
Rasmus Kupari53.9%46.4%50.8%
Blake Lizotte50.4%48.8%54.4%

53.1% together, 46.8% for him apart and 51.5% for Walker apart. He was worse away from Walker, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Walker did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

67 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 27 feet. 36% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 22% from beyond forty.