Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2026-27 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2026-27 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

5

Nils Lundkvist

Dallas Stars Defense

A first-round pick, 5 seasons, and 55 points to show for 235 games.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22NYR25134+40100323.113:56
2022-23DAL6061016-526102946.416:19
2023-24DAL5921719+1316000732.714:06
2024-25DAL39055+420000520.015:01
2025-26DAL523811+1216000466.516:29
2026-27 so far—————————————
Career—235124355+28782022974.015:20

This Season So Far

The 2026-27 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 8 assists in 52 games — 11 points, plus-12, at 16:29 a night.

The Finesse Game

He was drafted as an offensive defenceman and has never produced like one. 74 unblocked attempts from a median of 52 feet, 7 per cent inside 20, 3 goals. 8 assists in 52 games.

The skating is good and the first pass is quick. What has not travelled from Sweden is the confidence to do anything with the puck once he has it — he moves it early and safely almost every time.

The Physical Game

6-1, 194, and light for the position. 16 penalty minutes in 52 games. He is not a factor in front of his own net and Dallas keeps him away from that work.

The Intangibles

50.3 per cent of the expected goals, 57th percentile, and 49.1 per cent of the shot attempts, 47th, across 832 minutes. Slightly below the line on a club that finished 4th in the league defensively — which is a third-pair result in third-pair minutes.

No goals in his last 10. He is 26, the 28th pick in 2018, and 235 games into a career that has settled at a level well below what the pick implied. This is probably what he is.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in

    83.8% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 94th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2025-26 · 832 minutes

Expected goals
50.3%
57th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.1%
48th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 37 for, 25 against. Expected: 33.0 and 32.6.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted
Report
8th
Numbers
57th
Blind
19th

The numbers rank him 49 points above where the report does. It was written with these numbers on screen and departs from them anyway, which makes the gap a judgment rather than an oversight. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

The same player was graded a second time from his biography and his box score alone, with the measured record withheld. That reading lands 38 points from the numbers; this one lands 49. Across the whole control the two distances come out the same, which is worth knowing in both directions: the arithmetic on both sides of the sighted reading did not buy it any accuracy, and it did not cost it any either.

All three bars are percentiles among the 656 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2025-26 · 52 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
71st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.69 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.41 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
95.5 mph
82nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 88.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Recent form

Last 20 appearances, 2025-26, oldest first

4

points in his last 10 games — 0 goals, 4 assists, 17 shots

Each bar is one game by points. Filled bars are games he scored in.

Usual linemates

2025-26 · 832 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2025-26

The club
DAL took 50.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.3% — 0.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 832 minutes at five-on-five — 41st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Thomas Harley50.7%49.2%46.6%
Wyatt Johnston47.0%52.2%52.1%
Jason Robertson56.2%47.5%55.4%

50.7% together, 49.2% for him apart and 46.6% for Harley apart. Harley was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Harley than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

74 unblocked shots in 2025-26, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 30 feet. 7% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 84% from beyond forty.