Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

24

Jake Bean

Calgary Flames Defense

7 points in 64 games, a 47.7 per cent chance share, and a puck-moving defenceman who has stopped moving pucks.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19CAR20000200010.08:28
2020-21CAR4211112-210100551.814:32
2021-22CBJ6771825-526002907.820:34
2022-23CBJ14156-26000166.315:42
2023-24CBJ724913-1032000765.316:20
2024-25CGY6425708000712.815:05
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—261154863-19841023094.916:44

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

2 goals and 5 assists in 64 games for 7 points, even, on 15:05 a night.

48.4 per cent at five-on-five, the 38th percentile, over 892 minutes. 71 shots and 2 goals, and 7 points in 64 games is the lowest production of any defenceman on the roster who played more than 50.

The Finesse Game

He was a first-round pick for an offensive game that has never appeared. 7 points in a full season at 15 minutes a night is not a slump — it is his third consecutive season in that neighbourhood.

The skating is fine and the first pass is adequate. There is nothing here that a club could build a power play or a breakout around, which was the entire premise.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 191, and light. He does not clear a net front, does not win board battles, and defends with position rather than with anything else.

8 penalty minutes over 64 games. He is not involved enough to take them.

The Intangibles

A 13th overall pick, three organisations, and eight professional seasons without establishing what he is for.

At 27 the projection is a seventh defenceman. The offensive tools that made him a first-rounder have not translated in any environment he has been placed in.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.13 penalty minutes a game over 64, 3rd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    62% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 96th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “He does not clear a net front, does not win board battles, and defends with position rather than with anything else.”

  • wins-the-wallhe lacks it· the corners and below the goal line

    “He does not clear a net front, does not win board battles, and defends with position rather than with anything else.”

  • nastyhe lacks it· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “8 penalty minutes over 64 games. He is not involved enough to take them.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 892 minutes

Expected goals
48.4%
38th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.7%
80th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 26 for, 27 against. Expected: 33.2 and 35.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
5th
Numbers
38th

The numbers rank him 33 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 64 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
67th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.23 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.10 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
81.3 mph
9th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 89.7

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 892 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
CGY took 48.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.4% — 0.3 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 892 minutes at five-on-five — 44th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brayden Pachal48.1%49.0%46.4%
Nazem Kadri50.4%47.5%48.2%
Jonathan Huberdeau47.3%48.9%49.5%

48.1% together, 49.0% for him apart and 46.4% for Pachal apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

109 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 59 feet. 6% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 66% from beyond forty.