Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

27

Matt Coronato

Calgary Flames Right Wing

24 goals at 22 in his first full season, from 5-10 and 183 pounds.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2022-23CGY1000+1200040.014:38
2023-24CGY34369-154100585.212:37
2024-25CGY77242347+62550418013.317:35
2025-26 so far
Career112272956-83160424211.216:03

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

24 goals and 23 assists in 77 games for 47 points, plus-6, on 17:35 a night and 180 shots — the best rookie season on the club and one of the better ones in the league.

50.5 per cent at five-on-five, the 58th percentile, with on-ice goals of 31-31 against an expected 42-41. 13.3 per cent shooting is a sustainable rate.

The Finesse Game

A quick, deceptive release and a genuine willingness to use it — 180 shots in a first full season is a high volume for a winger playing seventeen minutes.

The distances are the caution: a median of 32 feet with only a quarter of his attempts inside 20, which for a small winger is where he is allowed to work rather than where he wants to be. The playmaking has come along and 23 assists understates what he sees; the puck skills at speed are good.

The Physical Game

5-10 and 183, and he competes harder than the frame suggests. He goes into corners, gets to the net front on the power play, and does not get discouraged when he loses a puck.

25 penalty minutes over 77 games. The size is the standing limitation and the reason he has not yet been trusted with the hardest matchups.

The Intangibles

A first-round pick who took two full American League seasons to arrive and then scored 24 immediately.

At 22 the projection is a 30-goal winger, which on this roster makes him the most important forward in the organisation. The one thing to watch is whether he can start getting inside; 24 goals from 32 feet is a good season and not a repeatable formula.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,051 minutes

Expected goals
50.5%
59th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.8%
81st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 31 for, 31 against. Expected: 41.5 and 40.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
73rd
Numbers
59th

The two rank him within 14 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 315 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 77 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1051 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
CGY took 48.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.5% — 1.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 1,051 minutes at five-on-five — 68th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Mikael Backlund50.6%50.3%51.3%
Rasmus Andersson50.0%50.9%48.0%
Blake Coleman52.0%49.3%51.5%

50.6% together, 50.3% for him apart and 51.3% for Backlund apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

267 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 24 of them goals. His median goal came from 28 feet. 25% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 22% from beyond forty.