Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

62

Oskar Steen

Boston Bruins Center

Twenty games at twenty-three, a 56.5 per cent chance share, and a shot that leaves his stick at 80.4 mph — the 1st percentile.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21BOS3000-1200060.013:24
2021-22BOS20246-16000258.011:04
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—23246-28000316.511:22

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

2 goals and 4 assists in 20 games — 6 points at 11:04 a night, minus-1, on 25 shots and 6 penalty minutes.

56.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 211 minutes, which sounds excellent and is 211 minutes on the club with the second-best chance share in the league. His ice went 7-8 against an expectation of 8.37-6.44.

Twenty games and eleven minutes of them. There is not enough here to draw a conclusion and there is enough to note two things.

The Finesse Game

The shot leaves his stick at 80.4 mph — the 1st percentile among the skaters the tracking covers. Twenty-five attempts, two goals. For a forward whose route to a roster spot is skill rather than size, a release that soft is a real problem and not a small one.

25 attempts at a median of 29 feet with 26 per cent from inside 20. Six points in 23 career games.

The Physical Game

5-10 and 196, and he is built low and thick and plays that way on a forecheck. Six penalty minutes in 20 games.

Top speed 21.7 mph and 1.81 miles a game on eleven minutes of ice — both near the bottom, and both distorted by how little he played.

The Intangibles

One hundred and sixty-fifth overall in 2016, out of Farjestad in Sweden, and three seasons in Providence.

He is 24. Boston is a bad place to be a fringe forward — the top nine is expensive and settled and the fourth line is staffed with men the coaching staff trusts — and twenty games a season for three years is not a career path so much as a holding pattern.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • forechecks-aggressivelypresent and ordinary· first man in, and on the puck

    “5-10 and 196, and he is built low and thick and plays that way on a forecheck”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 211 minutes

Expected goals
56.5%
92nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.2%
73rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 7 for, 8 against. Expected: 8.4 and 6.4.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
17th
Numbers
92nd

The numbers rank him 75 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 53 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 20 games

Top speed
21.7 mph
32nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.85 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.81 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
80.4 mph
22nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 211 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
BOS took 56.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.5% — 0.3 above the club he did it on.
The role
211 minutes at five-on-five — 1st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brandon Carlo56.1%56.8%52.1%
Derek Forbort44.6%61.5%50.7%
Mike Reilly60.2%55.0%57.7%

56.1% together, 56.8% for him apart and 52.1% for Carlo apart. Carlo was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Carlo than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

31 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 26% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 29% from beyond forty.