Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

63

Brad Marchand

Boston Bruins Left Wing

Eighty points in 70 games at thirty-four, a 64 per cent chance share, and a summer of hip surgery on both sides.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2009-10BOS20011-320000320.011:58
2010-11BOS77212041+255125214914.113:59
2011-12BOS76282755+318751316716.817:37
2012-13BOS45181836+23274259119.816:58
2013-14BOS82252853+366415514916.815:57
2014-15BOS77241842+59522518013.316:54
2015-16BOS77372461+219064625014.818:36
2016-17BOS80394685+188193822617.319:26
2017-18BOS68345185+256381818218.719:43
2018-19BOS793664100+1596103923115.619:37
2019-20BOS70285987+258251518515.119:27
2020-21BOS53294069+264644514320.318:55
2021-22BOS70324880+169772624213.219:15
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—874351444795+263899633367222715.817:52

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

32 goals and 48 assists in 70 games — 80 points at 19:15 a night, plus-16, with 7 power-play goals and 2 shorthanded on 242 shots and 97 penalty minutes.

64.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 931 minutes, the 99th percentile. His ice went 52-34 against an expectation of 48.93-27.55 — three goals of scoring above the chances and more than six more conceded than they predicted.

3.08 even-strength points per 60 is the 94th percentile among forwards and 10.78 shots per 60 is the 93rd. Eighty points at thirty-four, on a line that took two-thirds of the chances.

The Finesse Game

242 attempts at a median of 30 feet — the 91st percentile for distance — with 42 per cent from inside the slot, converting at 13.2 per cent. He is not a net-front scorer and never has been; the goals come from the half-wall and the top of the circle off a release nobody reads early.

48 assists in 70 games and 444 in a career of 874. The passing is the better half and has been for five years.

2.76 giveaways per 60 is among the highest figures for a forward in the league. He holds the puck until something opens, and on a line with Bergeron and Pastrnak something usually does.

The Physical Game

5-9 and 180, and the whole method is to be impossible to play against without fouling. 1.47 penalties drawn per 60 is the 92nd percentile and 1.56 taken is the 91st — he is at both ends of that ledger every night, and 899 penalty minutes in 874 games is the career behind it.

3.47 hits per 60 at the 45th percentile. He is not physical in the ordinary sense; he is present, constantly, in a way that costs opponents their composure and costs Boston roughly as many power plays as it wins.

1:38 a night shorthanded, the 78th percentile among forwards, with 2 shorthanded goals.

Top speed 22.1 mph at the 30th percentile. He is not fast and never was; the separation is anticipation.

The Intangibles

Seventy-first overall in 2006, 874 games in one uniform, 795 points, a Stanley Cup at twenty-three and two more finals since.

He is 34, and he had surgery on both hips in the summer, which will cost him the opening weeks of the season. A 5-9 winger whose game is built on being first to a loose puck and last to leave a scrum is exactly the player whose hips decide when the career ends, and Boston has no answer for what the top line looks like without him.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-shot· beats a goaltender from range

    6 of 75 attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 8.0%, 94th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.21) · 16% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    64.0% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 53.5% for his club in the minutes he sat: +10.5, 99th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • agitatora strength· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “1.47 penalties drawn per 60 is the 92nd percentile and 1.56 taken is the 91st”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “The passing is the better half and has been for five years.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “1:38 a night shorthanded, the 78th percentile among forwards, with 2 shorthanded goals”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 931 minutes

Expected goals
64%
100th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
62.6%
100th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 52 for, 34 against. Expected: 48.9 and 27.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
98th
Numbers
100th

The two rank him within 2 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 77 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 70 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
49th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.27 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.11 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
88.6 mph
58th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 931 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
BOS took 56.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 64.0% — 7.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 931 minutes at five-on-five — 54th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Patrice Bergeron68.8%44.9%70.1%
Charlie McAvoy67.9%58.0%56.7%
Jake DeBrusk65.5%62.8%51.7%

68.8% together, 44.9% for him apart and 70.1% for Bergeron apart. He was worse away from Bergeron, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Bergeron did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

299 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 32 of them goals. His median goal came from 17 feet. 32% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 25% from beyond forty.