Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

37

Patrice Bergeron

Boston Bruins Center

Sixty-nine per cent of the expected goals at thirty-six — the highest five-on-five chance share of any skater in this book, in a 1,216th game.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2003-04BOS71162339+52270213312.016:21
2005-06BOS81314273+322121631010.020:36
2006-07BOS77224870-282614062249.820:49
2007-08BOS10347+222002412.518:10
2008-09BOS6483139+2161111555.217:59
2009-10BOS73193352+62801418410.318:54
2010-11BOS80223557+202632421110.417:53
2011-12BOS81224264+362052319111.518:35
2012-13BOS42102232+24182031258.019:18
2013-14BOS80303262+384371724312.317:59
2014-15BOS81233255+2444142349.818:08
2015-16BOS80323668+1249121628211.319:50
2016-17BOS79213253+12248073027.019:25
2017-18BOS64303363+2126102622413.419:26
2018-19BOS65324779+233094320515.618:28
2019-20BOS61312556+2328111520315.318:44
2020-21BOS54232548+271673318212.618:13
2021-22BOS73254065+26328042938.518:10
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—1216400582982+2544721222074372510.718:46

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

25 goals and 40 assists in 73 games — 65 points at 18:10 a night, plus-26, with 8 power-play goals on 293 shots and 32 penalty minutes.

69.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 910 minutes — the highest figure of any skater in this book. His ice went 49-25 against an expectation of 51.43-23.07: the scoring landed almost exactly where the chances said, and two more went in behind him than they predicted.

Forty-nine goals for and twenty-five against, in 910 minutes, at thirty-six years old. There is no other line like it anywhere in this edition.

44.6 per cent of his even-strength time was spent in the offensive zone, the 95th percentile. That is not deployment — the reputation is for defensive-zone starts — it is what happens to the puck once the shift begins.

13.25 shots per 60 is the 99th percentile among the league’s forwards. At thirty-six he attempted more per minute than almost anybody in hockey.

The Finesse Game

293 attempts at a median of 27 feet, 34 per cent of them from inside 20, converting at 8.5 per cent — the 25th percentile. The volume is enormous and the finish is ordinary, which has been true for a decade and is why the goal totals have never matched the reputation.

2.18 even-strength points per 60 at the 79th percentile, with 35 per cent of his points on the power play, the 90th. 982 career points across 1,216 games.

He is the best faceoff man of his generation and the draw is where every one of these numbers starts. A centre who wins the puck at the dot begins the shift with it, and a shift begun with the puck is most of what a 69 per cent chance share is.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 196, and 3.53 hits per 60 at the 45th percentile. He was never a heavy player and does not need to be: 0.95 giveaways per 60 is among the lowest rates for a forward in the league, and a man who does not lose the puck is not often in a position to have to take it back.

The legs are finally the age. Top speed 22.1 mph is the 30th percentile, 2.6 bursts above 20 mph per 60 is the 15th, and 9.22 miles per sixty is the 16th. He is slower than most of the league and it has not cost him a thing yet, because he is never further than a stick’s length from where the puck is going.

The Intangibles

Forty-fifth overall in 2003. Nineteen seasons, one club, 1,216 games and a captaincy taken up at thirty-five, with 400 goals, 982 points and five Selke trophies.

He is 37, on a one-year contract signed in August after a summer in which retirement was genuinely on the table. The measured record says he was the most effective five-on-five player in hockey last season, which makes this the strangest sentence in the book: the best two-way centre of his era is playing the season a year at a time and could stop at the end of it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    69.0% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 52.0% for his club in the minutes he sat: +17.0, 100th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    61% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 93rd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • faceoffsa strength· takes the draw that starts it

    “He is the best faceoff man of his generation and the draw is where every one of these numbers starts”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “69.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 910 minutes — the highest figure of any skater in this book”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “Nineteen seasons, one club, 1,216 games and a captaincy taken up at thirty-five”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 910 minutes

Expected goals
69%
100th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
65.7%
100th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 49 for, 25 against. Expected: 51.4 and 23.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
96th
Numbers
100th

The two rank him within 4 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 73 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
49th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.78 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.79 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.3 mph
73rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 910 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
BOS took 56.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 69.0% — 12.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second line, 910 minutes at five-on-five — 51st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brad Marchand68.8%70.1%44.9%
Charlie McAvoy71.9%64.2%53.9%
David Pastrnak67.5%70.1%53.5%

68.8% together, 70.1% for him apart and 44.9% for Marchand apart. Marchand was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Marchand than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

349 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 25 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 35% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 23% from beyond forty.