Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

71

Taylor Hall

Boston Bruins Left Wing

A first-overall pick playing 16:25 a night at thirty — and the 96th percentile in top speed while doing it.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2010-11EDM65222042-92780418611.818:13
2011-12EDM61272653-336130720713.018:13
2012-13EDM45163450+53340415410.418:37
2013-14EDM75275380-154470125010.820:01
2014-15EDM53142438-1403001588.919:13
2015-16EDM82263965-4544062869.119:12
2016-17NJD72203353-9327042388.419:20
2017-18NJD76395493+1434131727814.019:09
2018-19NJD33112637-6161031139.719:41
2019-20NJD/ARI65163652-14344012326.919:10
2020-21BUF/BOS53102333-6262011367.317:52
2021-22BOS81204161+11427032179.216:25
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—761248409657-3741873141245510.118:43

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

20 goals and 41 assists in 81 games — 61 points at 16:25 a night, plus-11, with 7 power-play goals on 217 shots and 42 penalty minutes.

Sixty-one points on 16:25 a night, the 59th percentile of ice time. He is a former Hart Trophy winner and a first-overall pick playing a second-line shift, and the production per minute says he is worth more of them: 2.51 even-strength points per 60, the 82nd percentile.

57.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,056 minutes, the 94th percentile. His ice went 59-42 against an expectation of 48.06-35.95 — eleven goals of scoring above what the chances predicted, and six more conceded than they did.

The Finesse Game

217 attempts at a median of 26 feet, 38 per cent from inside 20, converting at 9.2 per cent — the 31st percentile. 9.79 shots per 60 is the 87th percentile, so the volume is there and the finish has not been for three seasons: 248 goals in 761 games is a career rate he is no longer matching.

41 assists in 81 games and 409 in a career of 761. The playmaking has outlasted the scoring, which is the ordinary way for a winger to age.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 210, and 2.48 hits per 60 at the 27th percentile. He does not play that way and never has.

The skating is genuinely elite and has not gone: 23.5 mph top speed is the 96th percentile among forwards, 9.1 bursts above 20 mph per 60 is the 84th, and 10.18 miles per sixty is the 92nd. At 30, after four organisations and a long list of injuries, he is still the fastest way this club has of moving a puck a hundred feet.

The Intangibles

First overall in 2010 by Edmonton, a Hart Trophy in New Jersey in 2018, and 657 points across Edmonton, New Jersey, Arizona, Buffalo and Boston.

He is 30, with three years left on his contract. He arrived here as a rental in 2021, played the best hockey of his last five seasons, and signed to stay. Boston has, in effect, a first-line winger on a third line, and the reason is that the first line is Marchand, Bergeron and Pastrnak. That is a good problem and it is also 61 points nobody is talking about.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    4 of his 20 goals late or in overtime, 96th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    65% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 97th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “he is still the fastest way this club has of moving a puck a hundred feet”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “The playmaking has outlasted the scoring, which is the ordinary way for a winger to age.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,056 minutes

Expected goals
57.2%
95th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
54.9%
87th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 59 for, 42 against. Expected: 48.1 and 36.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
74th
Numbers
95th

The numbers rank him 21 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 81 games

Top speed
23.5 mph
97th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.49 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.78 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.2 mph
72nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1056 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
BOS took 56.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 57.2% — 1.0 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,056 minutes at five-on-five — 69th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
David Pastrnak58.6%54.8%59.1%
Erik Haula55.3%59.2%51.6%
Brandon Carlo51.7%60.5%52.7%

58.6% together, 54.8% for him apart and 59.1% for Pastrnak apart. He was worse away from Pastrnak, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Pastrnak did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

260 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 20 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 38% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.