Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

86

Anton Stralman

Boston Bruins Defense

Nine hundred and thirty games at thirty-five, a 43.2 per cent chance share in Arizona, and 7.95 miles per sixty — the 6th percentile at his position.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2007-08TOR50369-1018000407.512:49
2008-09TOR3811213-220001432.315:34
2009-10CBJ7362834-17374001215.020:29
2010-11CBJ5111718-1122101801.319:44
2011-12NYR5321618+920000553.617:06
2012-13NYR48437+1416000666.118:03
2013-14NYR8111213+9260001041.019:25
2014-15TBL8293039+22262001386.521:57
2015-16TBL7392534+16201001277.122:05
2016-17TBL7351722+1201001303.922:54
2017-18TBL8041418+29180001313.021:29
2018-19TBL4721517+128000573.520:31
2019-20FLA6951419-614003895.621:04
2020-21FLA38369-18000387.918:57
2021-22ARI7481523-1612001958.421:20
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—93063230293+4928590613144.819:60

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

With Arizona. 8 goals and 15 assists in 74 games — 23 points at 21:20 a night, minus-16, on 95 shots and 12 penalty minutes.

43.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,326 minutes, the 10th percentile among defencemen — on the club that finished last in the league in chance share. His ice went 60-74 against an expectation of 48.70-64.02: eleven goals of scoring above what the chances predicted, and ten more conceded than they did.

2:56 a night shorthanded, the 95th percentile among defencemen, on the worst penalty kill in hockey.

Eight goals off 95 attempts is 8.4 per cent, the 92nd percentile for a defenceman, and comes from 16 per cent of them being taken from inside the slot — the 78th. At thirty-five he was still walking in from the point.

The Finesse Game

1.06 giveaways per 60 is one of the lowest rates at the position and 230 assists across 930 games is the record behind it. He has never been a high-event defenceman and he does not start being one now: the puck goes to the safe side, quickly, and the shift continues.

He took eight seconds a night of power play and scored none of his points on it.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 193, and 3.76 hits per 60 at the 47th percentile with 3.80 blocks at the 40th. Ordinary at both, which for a small defenceman at thirty-five is better than it sounds.

The skating is gone. 21.4 mph top speed is the 24th percentile, 1.1 bursts above 20 mph per 60 is the 33rd, and 7.95 miles per sixty is the 6th percentile among defencemen. He covers less ground than almost anybody at the position, and twenty-one minutes a night on the league’s worst possession club is a great many chances to be caught.

0.23 penalties taken per 60 is the 6th percentile. He does not foul, which is the compensation an experienced defenceman makes when the feet stop arriving.

The Intangibles

Two hundred and sixteenth overall in 2005 by Toronto, deep in the seventh round, and 930 NHL games since across Toronto, Columbus, the Rangers, Tampa, Florida and Arizona.

He is 36. Boston has him as a seventh defenceman and an insurance policy for the two months Charlie McAvoy is out, and the honest reading of last season is that 21 minutes was three too many even on a club that had nobody else.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.16 penalty minutes a game over 74, 7th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    38% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 5th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “2:56 a night shorthanded, the 95th percentile among defencemen”

  • transitionpresent and ordinary· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “1.06 giveaways per 60 is one of the lowest rates at the position and 230 assists across 930 games is the record behind it”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,326 minutes

Expected goals
43.2%
11th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
44.5%
13th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 60 for, 74 against. Expected: 48.7 and 64.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
17th
Numbers
11th

The two rank him within 6 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 53 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 74 games

Top speed
21.4 mph
44th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.38 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.83 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.6 mph
52nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with ARI · 1326 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
ARI took 42.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.2% — 0.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,326 minutes at five-on-five — 91st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
J.J. Moser39.4%45.2%41.6%
Phil Kessel40.2%44.3%45.2%
Nick Schmaltz46.7%42.1%47.0%

39.4% together, 45.2% for him apart and 41.6% for Moser apart. He was better away from Moser, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Moser.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

116 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 8 of them goals. His median goal came from 23 feet. 14% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 72% from beyond forty.